Challenger MaiaChallenger 125Qualifying round 1claybest of three setsqualifying

Broska vs Oetzbach 2:1: result and our tips

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Florian BroskaATP #334Elo 1610clay 1594
2:1final6:3 6:7(6) 6:1
Adrian OetzbachATP #554Elo 1375clay 1385

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 19.5Won60%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Broska: 7 matches in a row over 19.5 games; Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Broska 17 of 20, Oetzbach 6 of 12 (tour average 59%)

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost65%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Oetzbach: 8 matches in a row without a deciding set

  • Match Winner: BroskaWon75%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 75%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Oetzbach lost 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Under 19.5Lost40%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Oetzbach: 5 matches in a row under 19.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Florian Broska75%
Adrian Oetzbach25%

Elo: F. Broska 77% · A. Oetzbach 23%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 F. Broska52%
2:1 F. Broska23%
2:1 A. Oetzbach12%
2:0 A. Oetzbach14%

First set

Florian Broska68%
Adrian Oetzbach32%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 53%market (no margin): 52%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.570%30%68%
19.560%40%59%
20.553%47%52%
21.548%53%47%
22.541%59%40%
23.536%64%36%
24.534%66%34%

Sample: 3,083 matches

Games handicap

Florian Broska −4.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes27%

tour average 27%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 20.5in · 29 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Florian BroskaAdrian Oetzbach
6Aces7
0Double faults2
74%First serves in65%
80%First-serve points won69%
79%Second-serve points won42%
5/8Break points converted0/0
13/13Service games held10/15
80%Service points won60%
40%Return points won21%
96Total points won71

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

F. BroskaTourA. Oetzbach
Service points won64%62%58%
Return points won38%38%37%
Service games held80%76%68%
Breaks of serve21%24%22%
Aces per service game0.380.31
Double faults per game0.210.27
Sets with a tie-break23%19%
Tie-breaks won8/161/5
Wins in straight sets40%33%
Matches in the sample2812

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Florian Broska

Adrian Oetzbach

  • 04/10/26LFilip Pieczonka#905Challenger Braga · Q14:6 3:6
  • 28/09/26LImanol Lopez Morillo#668Challenger Bari · Q24:6 3:6
  • 27/09/26WRiccardo TrioneChallenger Bari · Q16:1 6:4
  • 20/09/26LGeorge Lazarov#888Challenger Plovdiv 4 · Q12:6 3:6
  • 13/09/26LPierluigi Basile#521Challenger Biella · Q10:6 6:7
  • 26/07/26LMika Petkovic#437Challenger Bonn · Q14:6 5:7
  • 01/06/26LDominic Stricker#263Challenger Bad Rappenau · Q16:7 3:6
  • 24/03/26LFilippo Romano#306Challenger Split · R323:6 6:7
  • 23/03/26WStefan Popovic#642Challenger Split · Q26:4 1:6 7:5
  • 22/03/26WMilos Karol#583Challenger Split · Q13:6 6:3 7:6

Elo over the last year

Florian BroskaAdrian Oetzbach

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

F. BroskaA. Oetzbach
Hard court5–645%0–10%
Clay10–759%3–827%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

See also