Bublik vs Macháč 2:0: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Bublik won the first set in 9 of the last 20 matches, Machac lost the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)
Where the number comes from: market alone 40% → with the players' profiles 50%
A tie-break in recent matches: Bublik 13 of 20, Machac 8 of 20 (tour average 38%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: A. Bublik 56% · T. Macháč 44%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.5
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | 68% | 32% | 59% |
| 21.5 | 61% | 39% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 55% | 45% | 45% |
| 23.5 | 46% | 54% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 41% | 59% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 39% | 61% | 34% |
| 26.5 | 35% | 65% | 30% |
Sample: 5,312 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 39%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorehit 2:0
- Total games Over 22.5in · 23 games
- Games handicapcovered
- Tie-breaktie-break played
Match stats
| Alexander Bublik | Tomáš Macháč | |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Aces | 4 |
| 1 | Double faults | 2 |
| 73% | First serves in | 77% |
| 85% | First-serve points won | 67% |
| 53% | Second-serve points won | 37% |
| 2/6 | Break points converted | 1/1 |
| 10/11 | Service games held | 9/11 |
| 77% | Service points won | 60% |
| 40% | Return points won | 23% |
| 82 | Total points won | 65 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. Bublik | Tour | T. Macháč | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 68% | 62% | 62% |
| Return points won | 34% | 38% | 35% |
| Service games held | 86% | 76% | 77% |
| Breaks of serve | 17% | 24% | 19% |
| Aces per service game | 0.85 | 0.41 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.27 | 0.21 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 23% | 17% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 19/32 | 10/15 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 44% | |
| Matches in the sample | 54 | 33 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Alexander Bublik
- 01/10/26LJakub Menšík#15ATP Beijing · R324:6 6:7
- 04/09/26LTommy Paul#18ATP US Open · R324:6 6:3 7:6 1:6 3:6
- 02/09/26WAdrian Mannarino#83ATP US Open · R646:3 6:1 6:1
- 31/08/26WJeffrey John Wolf#223ATP US Open · R1286:4 6:2 3:6 6:1
- 25/07/26LQuentin Halys#48ATP Kitzbuhel · F4:6 6:7
- 24/07/26WTomás Martín Etcheverry#31ATP Kitzbuhel · SF6:3 6:4
- 23/07/26WAlex Molcan#84ATP Kitzbuhel · QF6:3 6:2
- 22/07/26WFacundo Diaz Acosta#69ATP Kitzbuhel · R166:3 7:5
- 16/07/26LQuentin Halys#48ATP Gstaad · R167:6 4:6 6:7
- 06/07/26LTaylor Fritz#12ATP Wimbledon · R166:7 4:6 4:6
Tomáš Macháč
- 07/10/26WZhizhen Zhang#166ATP Shanghai · R1281:6 7:6 6:2
- 01/10/26LAlex Molcan#84ATP Beijing · R323:6 2:6
- 29/09/26LArthur Gea#56ATP Beijing · Q23:6 4:6
- 28/09/26WYannick Hanfmann#57ATP Beijing · Q17:6 6:7 6:4
- 30/08/26LToby Samuel#100ATP US Open · R1282:6 3:6 2:6
- 25/08/26LMees Rottgering#327ATP Winston Salem · R322:6 6:7
- 14/08/26LPablo Carreno Busta#65ATP Cincinnati · R1283:6 2:6
- 27/05/26LAlexander Zverev#2ATP French Open · R644:6 2:6 2:6
- 24/05/26WZizou Bergs#39ATP French Open · R1286:4 6:4 6:3
- 07/05/26WStefanos Tsitsipas#43ATP Rome · R1286:4 7:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. Bublik | T. Macháč | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 20–1067% | 10–1245% |
| Clay | 8–850% | 6–555% |
| Grass | 5–363% | 0–0 |
Head to head
A. Bublik 2–0 T. Macháč
- 20/06/25Winner: Alexander Bublik7:6 6:3
- 26/02/24Winner: Alexander Bublik2:6 6:3 7:6
Road through the tournament
Alexander Bublik
First match in this tournament.
Tomáš Macháč
- 07/10/26WZhizhen Zhang#166ATP Shanghai · R1281:6 7:6 6:2