Carboni vs McDonald 1:1: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 69% → with the players' profiles 66%
McDonald: 10 matches in a row over 18.5 games; Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Carboni 14 of 20, McDonald 19 of 20 (tour average 71%)
Other tips
- Tie-break in Match: No75%
Where the number comes from: market alone 71% → with the players' profiles 75%
McDonald: 6 matches in a row without a tie-break
Where the number comes from: market alone 31% → with the players' profiles 34%
Carboni: 3 matches in a row under 18.5 games
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: L. Carboni 22% · M. McDonald 78%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 21.9
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.5 | 74% | 26% | 79% |
| 18.5 | 65% | 35% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 57% | 43% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 49% | 52% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 42% | 58% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 36% | 64% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 32% | 68% | 37% |
Sample: 3,049 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 32%
Match stats
| Lorenzo Carboni | Mackenzie McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Aces | 2 |
| 2 | Double faults | 3 |
| 64% | First serves in | 57% |
| 72% | First-serve points won | 62% |
| 50% | Second-serve points won | 57% |
| 4/10 | Break points converted | 2/2 |
| 9/11 | Service games held | 8/12 |
| 64% | Service points won | 60% |
| 40% | Return points won | 36% |
| 83 | Total points won | 82 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| L. Carboni | Tour | M. McDonald | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 58% | 62% | 62% |
| Return points won | 40% | 38% | 37% |
| Service games held | 67% | 76% | 76% |
| Breaks of serve | 30% | 24% | 23% |
| Aces per service game | 0.18 | 0.41 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.23 | 0.20 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 12% | 14% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 6/12 | 4/17 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 58% | 67% | |
| Matches in the sample | 43 | 51 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Lorenzo Carboni
- 06/09/26LGerard Campana Lee#449Challenger Seville · Q12:6 3:6
- 01/09/26LPedro Martinez#130Challenger Como · R321:6 0:3
- 11/08/26LDaniel Michalski#256Challenger Todi · R320:6 3:6
- 10/08/26WMaximilian Homberg#848Challenger Todi · Q26:1 6:1
- 09/08/26WGabriele Maria Noce#761Challenger Todi · Q16:1 4:6 7:6
- 04/08/26LPetr Brunclik#359Challenger Plovdiv 2 · R324:6 4:6
- 07/06/26LManuel Mazza#645Challenger Cattolica · Q17:6 0:6 1:3
- 02/06/26LRoberto Carballes Baena#258Challenger Perugia · R326:3 1:6 4:6
- 01/06/26WJelle Sels#579Challenger Perugia · Q26:4 6:4
- 31/05/26WLi Tu#527Challenger Perugia · Q16:3 6:4
Mackenzie McDonald
- 07/10/26LRyan Nijboer#417Challenger Braga · R321:6 6:4 3:6
- 29/09/26LToby Samuel#100Challenger Porto 2 · R325:7 1:6
- 28/08/26LDalibor Svrcina#126ATP US Open · Q36:4 2:6 5:7
- 26/08/26WThiago Seyboth Wild#136ATP US Open · Q26:4 6:4
- 24/08/26WStefano Napolitano#284ATP US Open · Q16:4 7:5
- 20/08/26LJacob Fearnley#96Challenger Quebec City · R324:6 5:7
- 11/08/26LYibing Wu#113ATP Cincinnati · Q16:7 6:1 5:7
- 28/07/26LAlex Michelsen#35ATP Washington · R324:6 5:7
- 26/07/26LTrevor Svajda#486ATP Washington · Q24:6 4:6
- 25/07/26WEdas Butvilas#199ATP Washington · Q13:6 6:3 6:4
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| L. Carboni | M. McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 8–947% | 15–1845% |
| Clay | 11–1542% | 1–713% |
| Grass | 0–0 | 5–550% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.