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WTA 125 CuritibaRound of 32claybest of three sets

Carle vs Pigossi 2:0: result and our tips

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Maria CarleWTA #239Elo 1580clay 1594
2:0final7:5 6:0
Laura PigossiWTA #247Elo 1443clay 1456

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 19.5Lost60%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Carle 14 of 20, Pigossi 13 of 20 (tour average 52%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: CarleWon61%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 61%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Pigossi lost 9 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 21.5Lost49%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Carle 11 of 20, Pigossi 12 of 20 (tour average 41%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Maria Carle62%
Laura Pigossi38%

Elo: M. Carle 69% · L. Pigossi 31%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Carle36%
2:1 M. Carle22%
2:1 L. Pigossi17%
2:0 L. Pigossi25%

First set

Maria Carle54%
Laura Pigossi46%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 53%market (no margin): 49%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.567%33%59%
19.560%40%52%
20.553%48%45%
21.549%51%41%
22.543%57%37%
23.539%61%33%
24.536%64%31%

Sample: 1,517 matches

Games handicap

M. Carle −2.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 20%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Over 20.5out · 18 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Maria CarleLaura Pigossi
—Aces—
2Double faults5
84%First serves in72%
60%First-serve points won47%
56%Second-serve points won39%
7/12Break points converted3/8
6/9Service games held2/9
59%Service points won45%
55%Return points won41%
69Total points won52

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. CarleTourL. Pigossi
Service points won53%56%50%
Return points won47%44%44%
Service games held56%63%51%
Breaks of serve44%37%36%
Aces per service game0.090.13
Double faults per game0.500.32
Sets with a tie-break10%7%
Tie-breaks won4/83/5
Wins in straight sets44%33%
Matches in the sample3330

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Maria Carle

  • 22/09/26LNuria Brancaccio#226WTA 125 Tolentino · R323:6 6:4 4:6
  • 15/09/26LEkaterine Gorgodze#180WTA 125 Ljubljana · R325:7 7:6 4:6
  • 11/09/26LRositsa Dencheva#195WTA 125 Antalya 4 · QF5:7 2:6
  • 10/09/26WEva Vedder#179WTA 125 Antalya 4 · R166:1 6:2
  • 08/09/26WGina Feistel#323WTA 125 Antalya 4 · R325:7 7:5 7:6
  • 25/08/26LVendula Valdmannova#169WTA US Open · Q13:6 3:6
  • 22/07/26LAnhelina Kalinina#55WTA Hamburg · R161:6 3:6
  • 21/07/26WJule Niemeier#447WTA Hamburg · R327:5 6:2
  • 20/07/26WJessica Pieri#339WTA Hamburg · Q20:6 6:1 6:1
  • 19/07/26WEmily Victoria EigelsbachWTA Hamburg · Q16:1 6:1

Laura Pigossi

Elo over the last year

Maria CarleLaura Pigossi

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. CarleL. Pigossi
Hard court2–433%1–517%
Clay13–1252%8–1535%
Grass1–150%0–10%

Head to head

M. Carle 1–1 L. Pigossi

  • 07/07/26Winner: M. Carle6:2 6:1
  • 03/12/23Winner: L. Pigossi3:6 2:6

See also