Challenger Santa Cruz 2Challenger 75Round of 32claybest of three sets

Casanova vs La Serna 0:2: result and our tips

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Hernan CasanovaATP #411Elo 1613clay 1622
0:2final3:6 4:6
Juan Manuel La SernaATP #285Elo 1640clay 1646

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Hernan Casanova40%
Juan Manuel La Serna61%

Elo: H. Casanova 47% · J. La Serna 54%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 H. Casanova22%
2:1 H. Casanova17%
2:1 J. La Serna22%
2:0 J. La Serna39%

First set

Hernan Casanova41%
Juan Manuel La Serna59%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 56%market (no margin): 50%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.572%28%76%
18.563%37%68%
19.556%44%59%
20.550%50%52%
21.544%56%47%
22.540%60%40%
23.538%62%36%

Sample: 4,853 matches

Games handicap

Juan Manuel La Serna −2.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes18%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 21.5in · 19 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Hernan CasanovaJuan Manuel La Serna
0Aces2
0Double faults8
71%First serves in65%
72%First-serve points won76%
54%Second-serve points won54%
0/5Break points converted2/3
7/9Service games held10/10
67%Service points won68%
32%Return points won33%
52Total points won62

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

H. CasanovaTourJ. La Serna
Service points won58%62%59%
Return points won44%38%44%
Service games held69%76%70%
Breaks of serve36%24%35%
Aces per service game0.100.18
Double faults per game0.110.24
Sets with a tie-break7%9%
Tie-breaks won3/66/12
Wins in straight sets71%49%
Matches in the sample3658

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Hernan Casanova

Juan Manuel La Serna

  • 10/09/26LLukas Neumayer#180Challenger Tulln · R165:7 7:6 1:6
  • 08/09/26WFilip Cristian Jianu#289Challenger Tulln · R326:4 3:6 6:3
  • 04/09/26LYanaki Milev#619Challenger Plovdiv 3 · QF3:6 6:3 1:6
  • 03/09/26WNikita Mashtakov#513Challenger Plovdiv 3 · R166:2 6:4
  • 01/09/26WAlexander Vasilev#611Challenger Plovdiv 3 · R326:1 6:2
  • 26/08/26LHynek Barton#288Challenger Augsburg · R166:1 5:7 2:6
  • 25/08/26WBenjamin Hassan#500Challenger Augsburg · R326:2 3:6 7:5
  • 20/08/26LTommaso Compagnucci#372Challenger Sion · QF3:6 7:6 4:6
  • 19/08/26WLuca Staeheli#431Challenger Sion · R166:3 1:1
  • 18/08/26WFacundo Mena#197Challenger Sion · R326:3 6:3

Elo over the last year

Hernan CasanovaJuan Manuel La Serna

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

H. CasanovaJ. La Serna
Hard court0–02–167%
Clay21–1558%35–2064%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Hernan Casanova

Juan Manuel La Serna

First match in this tournament.