Challenger LisbonChallenger 125Round of 32claybest of three sets

Cecchinato vs Gaubas 2:0: result and our tips

·

Marco CecchinatoATP #164Elo 1740clay 1736
2:0final6:4 6:3
Vilius GaubasATP #142Elo 1783clay 1754

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Won74%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Cecchinato: 12 matches in a row over 18.5 games; Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Cecchinato 17 of 20, Gaubas 15 of 20 (tour average 68%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: GaubasLost63%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 63%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Gaubas won 3 of 3 head-to-head matches

  • 1st Set Winner: GaubasLost60%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Gaubas won the first set in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 24.5Lost38%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 24.5 games in 2 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Marco Cecchinato38%
Vilius Gaubas62%

Elo: M. Cecchinato 48% · V. Gaubas 53%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Cecchinato21%
2:1 M. Cecchinato16%
2:1 V. Gaubas22%
2:0 V. Gaubas41%

First set

Marco Cecchinato40%
Vilius Gaubas60%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 52%market (no margin): 52%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.574%26%68%
19.565%35%59%
20.558%42%52%
21.552%48%46%
22.545%55%40%
23.541%59%36%
24.539%62%34%

Sample: 4,797 matches

Games handicap

Vilius Gaubas −2.553%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes30%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Over 21.5out · 19 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Marco CecchinatoVilius Gaubas
1Aces3
1Double faults4
49%First serves in70%
76%First-serve points won62%
73%Second-serve points won32%
3/7Break points converted1/1
9/10Service games held6/9
75%Service points won53%
47%Return points won26%
68Total points won47

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. CecchinatoTourV. Gaubas
Service points won63%62%61%
Return points won39%38%38%
Service games held78%76%75%
Breaks of serve26%24%26%
Aces per service game0.250.30
Double faults per game0.200.18
Sets with a tie-break18%20%
Tie-breaks won16/3213/31
Wins in straight sets71%56%
Matches in the sample7762

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Marco Cecchinato

Vilius Gaubas

Elo over the last year

Marco CecchinatoVilius Gaubas

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. CecchinatoV. Gaubas
Hard court1–233%7–464%
Clay44–2960%22–2547%
Grass0–10%3–175%

Head to head

M. Cecchinato 0–3 V. Gaubas

  • 26/08/26Winner: Vilius Gaubas4:6 3:6
  • 02/10/25Winner: Vilius Gaubas4:6 7:6 3:6
  • 08/07/24Winner: Vilius Gaubas6:7 6:7

See also