Challenger Wuning 3Challenger 50Round of 16hardbest of three sets

Derepasko vs Peliwo 2:0: result and our tips

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Timofei DerepaskoATP #662Elo 1622hard 1624
2:0final6:3 7:6(10)
Filip PeliwoATP #661Elo 1534hard 1536

Our tips

Our tip
No third setWon62%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

No third set in recent matches: Derepasko 12 of 14, Peliwo 14 of 20 (tour average 66%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Timofei Derepasko46%
Filip Peliwo54%

Elo: T. Derepasko 63% · F. Peliwo 38%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 T. Derepasko28%
2:1 T. Derepasko18%
2:1 F. Peliwo20%
2:0 F. Peliwo34%

First set

Timofei Derepasko47%
Filip Peliwo53%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 49%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.572%28%71%
19.564%36%62%
20.557%43%54%
21.551%49%49%
22.544%56%42%
23.541%59%37%
24.538%62%35%

Sample: 5,295 matches

Games handicap

Filip Peliwo −1.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes30%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Under 22.0out · 22 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Timofei DerepaskoFilip Peliwo
8Aces3
5Double faults2
59%First serves in64%
80%First-serve points won67%
42%Second-serve points won44%
3/7Break points converted2/10
9/11Service games held7/10
64%Service points won59%
41%Return points won36%
87Total points won75

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

T. DerepaskoTourF. Peliwo
Service points won60%62%59%
Return points won41%38%36%
Service games held72%76%69%
Breaks of serve32%24%20%
Aces per service game0.480.33
Double faults per game0.330.22
Sets with a tie-break7%15%
Tie-breaks won1/26/9
Wins in straight sets88%67%
Matches in the sample1426

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Timofei Derepasko

  • 05/10/26WSergey Fomin#294Challenger Wuning 3 · R326:2 7:6
  • 15/09/26LIlia Simakin#154Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R324:6 3:6
  • 14/09/26WTaisei Ichikawa#763Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · Q27:5 6:3
  • 13/09/26WStefan StorchChallenger Phan Thiet 4 · Q16:3 6:3
  • 10/09/26LCruz Hewitt#331Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R163:6 2:6
  • 08/09/26WSam Ryan Ziegann#852Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R326:3 4:6 6:4
  • 07/09/26WTaiyo Yamanaka#881Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · Q26:3 6:4
  • 06/09/26WMinhthien NguyenChallenger Phan Thiet 3 · Q16:2 6:0
  • 22/02/26LMaks Kaśnikowski#238Challenger Pune · Q16:7 2:6
  • 15/02/26LMaks Kaśnikowski#238Challenger New Delhi · Q12:6 3:6

Filip Peliwo

  • 06/10/26WMax Purcell#685Challenger Wuning 3 · R327:6 6:1
  • 28/09/26LMattia Bellucci#86Challenger Jingshan · Q12:6 4:6
  • 17/09/26LMoise Kouame#201Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R161:6 2:4
  • 15/09/26WTai Leonard Sach#510Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R321:6 6:3 6:4
  • 14/09/26WSam Ryan Ziegann#852Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · Q26:1 6:4
  • 13/09/26WArjun RathiChallenger Phan Thiet 4 · Q16:3 6:4
  • 11/09/26LArthur Weber#409Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · QF6:7 2:6
  • 10/09/26WKenta (2004) Miyoshi#450Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R167:6 6:3
  • 08/09/26WGrigoriy Lomakin#865Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R326:1 4:6 7:6
  • 31/08/26LOmar Jasika#422Challenger Zhangjiagang · Q22:6 3:6

Elo over the last year

Timofei DerepaskoFilip Peliwo

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

T. DerepaskoF. Peliwo
Hard court8–657%9–1636%
Clay0–00–10%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Timofei Derepasko

  • 05/10/26WSergey Fomin#294Challenger Wuning 3 · R326:2 7:6

Filip Peliwo