ATP Almaty250Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets

Duckworth vs Darderi 2:0: result and our tips

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James DuckworthATP #73Elo 1842hard 1814
2:0final7:5 7:6(7)
Luciano DarderiATP #23Elo 1988hard 1903

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 26.5Won63%

Where the number comes from: market alone 66% → with the players' profiles 63%

Darderi: 7 matches in a row under 26.5 games

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Won60%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    No third set in recent matches: Duckworth 15 of 20, Darderi 14 of 20 (tour average 64%)

Long shot
Total Games: Under 22.5Lost44%

Where the number comes from: market alone 49% → with the players' profiles 44%

Duckworth: 4 matches in a row under 22.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

James Duckworth48%
Luciano Darderi52%

Elo: J. Duckworth 38% · L. Darderi 63%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Duckworth28%
2:1 J. Duckworth20%
2:1 L. Darderi20%
2:0 L. Darderi32%

First set

James Duckworth49%
Luciano Darderi52%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 23.0 · 49%market (no margin): 50%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.570%30%60%
21.563%37%54%
22.556%44%46%
23.549%52%40%
24.544%56%38%
25.542%58%35%
26.537%63%30%

Sample: 5,244 matches

Games handicap

Luciano Darderi −0.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes49%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Over 23.0in · 25 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

James DuckworthLuciano Darderi
17Aces6
2Double faults1
64%First serves in70%
88%First-serve points won73%
50%Second-serve points won54%
1/2Break points converted0/1
12/12Service games held11/12
74%Service points won67%
33%Return points won26%
84Total points won73

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. DuckworthTourL. Darderi
Service points won66%62%63%
Return points won35%38%38%
Service games held84%76%78%
Breaks of serve20%24%24%
Aces per service game0.610.48
Double faults per game0.270.22
Sets with a tie-break19%18%
Tie-breaks won14/3214/28
Wins in straight sets63%51%
Matches in the sample7061

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

James Duckworth

Luciano Darderi

Elo over the last year

James DuckworthLuciano Darderi

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. DuckworthL. Darderi
Hard court28–2157%12–1348%
Clay11–473%22–1167%
Grass2–433%1–233%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

James Duckworth

Luciano Darderi

First match in this tournament.