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WTA 125 CuritibaRound of 32claybest of three sets

Giovannini vs Bronzetti 2:1: result and our tips

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Luisina GiovanniniWTA #199Elo 1560clay 1592
2:1final7:6(6) 1:6 6:2
Lucia BronzettiWTA #132Elo 1659clay 1694

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 22.5Lost57%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Under 22.5 games in recent matches: Giovannini 13 of 18, Bronzetti 14 of 20 (tour average 63%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Luisina Giovannini45%
Lucia Bronzetti55%

Elo: L. Giovannini 36% · L. Bronzetti 64%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 L. Giovannini28%
2:1 L. Giovannini18%
2:1 L. Bronzetti21%
2:0 L. Bronzetti33%

First set

Luisina Giovannini49%
Lucia Bronzetti51%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 52%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.566%34%59%
19.559%42%52%
20.552%48%45%
21.548%52%42%
22.543%57%37%
23.539%61%33%
24.536%64%31%

Sample: 1,461 matches

Games handicap

L. Bronzetti −1.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 20%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 28 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Luisina GiovanniniLucia Bronzetti
1Aces0
1Double faults2
74%First serves in63%
56%First-serve points won59%
40%Second-serve points won46%
6/7Break points converted7/10
7/14Service games held7/13
52%Service points won54%
46%Return points won48%
91Total points won94

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

L. GiovanniniTourL. Bronzetti
Service points won56%56%55%
Return points won45%44%46%
Service games held65%63%61%
Breaks of serve38%37%40%
Aces per service game0.180.16
Double faults per game0.290.26
Sets with a tie-break17%9%
Tie-breaks won0/78/12
Wins in straight sets67%60%
Matches in the sample1955

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Luisina Giovannini

Lucia Bronzetti

Elo over the last year

Luisina GiovanniniLucia Bronzetti

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

L. GiovanniniL. Bronzetti
Hard court0–20%4–1029%
Clay9–756%24–1463%
Grass0–10%2–167%

Head to head

L. Giovannini 0–1 L. Bronzetti

  • 24/08/26Winner: L. Bronzetti0:5