Challenger CataniaChallenger 50Semifinalclaybest of three sets

Giunta vs Cadenasso 0:2: result and our tips

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Massimo GiuntaATP #365Elo 1703clay 1691
0:2final2:6 3:6
Gianluca CadenassoATP #183Elo 1760clay 1757

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Lost57%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Giunta 15 of 20, Cadenasso 12 of 20 (tour average 52%); Cadenasso: 6 matches in a row over 20.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 24.5Lost39%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 24.5 games in recent matches: Giunta 10 of 20, Cadenasso 9 of 20 (tour average 34%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Massimo Giunta43%
Gianluca Cadenasso57%

Elo: M. Giunta 41% · G. Cadenasso 59%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Giunta25%
2:1 M. Giunta18%
2:1 G. Cadenasso21%
2:0 G. Cadenasso37%

First set

Massimo Giunta44%
Gianluca Cadenasso56%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 48%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.574%26%68%
19.565%35%59%
20.557%43%52%
21.552%48%47%
22.545%55%40%
23.541%59%36%
24.539%61%34%

Sample: 4,796 matches

Games handicap

Gianluca Cadenasso −2.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes30%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 22.0in · 17 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Massimo GiuntaGianluca Cadenasso
3Aces3
1Double faults1
64%First serves in72%
59%First-serve points won74%
33%Second-serve points won41%
1/3Break points converted4/5
4/8Service games held8/9
50%Service points won65%
35%Return points won50%
46Total points won64

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. GiuntaTourG. Cadenasso
Service points won66%62%60%
Return points won36%38%43%
Service games held83%76%71%
Breaks of serve21%24%34%
Aces per service game0.540.25
Double faults per game0.210.23
Sets with a tie-break25%10%
Tie-breaks won7/175/10
Wins in straight sets75%54%
Matches in the sample2943

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Massimo Giunta

Gianluca Cadenasso

Elo over the last year

Massimo GiuntaGianluca Cadenasso

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. GiuntaG. Cadenasso
Hard court6–555%0–0
Clay10–856%24–1857%
Grass0–00–10%

Head to head

M. Giunta 1–0 G. Cadenasso

  • 07/10/26Winner: Massimo Giunta7:6 7:5

Road through the tournament

Massimo Giunta

Gianluca Cadenasso