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WTA 125 CuritibaRound of 32claybest of three sets

Jones vs Urrutia 2:0: result and our tips

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Francesca JonesWTA #98Elo 1772clay 1776
2:0final7:5 6:1
Maria Florencia UrrutiaWTA #439Elo 1379clay 1395

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 19.5Won75%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Jones: 4 matches in a row under 19.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Francesca Jones95%
Maria Florencia Urrutia5%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 F. Jones84%
2:1 F. Jones12%
2:1 M. Urrutia3%
2:0 M. Urrutia2%

First set

Francesca Jones91%
Maria Florencia Urrutia9%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes14%
no86%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 17.5 · 61%market (no margin): 52%

The 17.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 17.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
13.587%14%97%
14.576%24%93%
15.563%37%86%
16.551%49%78%
17.539%61%69%
18.531%69%60%
19.525%75%52%

Sample: 500 matches

Games handicap

F. Jones −7.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes9%

tour average 20%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 17.5out · 19 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Francesca JonesMaria Florencia Urrutia
1Aces2
4Double faults1
79%First serves in83%
61%First-serve points won47%
64%Second-serve points won44%
5/8Break points converted2/5
8/10Service games held4/9
62%Service points won46%
54%Return points won38%
71Total points won51

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

F. JonesTourM. Urrutia
Service points won56%56%54%
Return points won45%44%44%
Service games held63%63%58%
Breaks of serve40%37%39%
Aces per service game0.170.15
Double faults per game0.350.27
Sets with a tie-break9%10%
Tie-breaks won5/110/1
Wins in straight sets52%0%
Matches in the sample514

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Francesca Jones

Maria Florencia Urrutia

  • 13/09/26LAnastasia Tikhonova#313WTA Sao Paulo · Q12:6 1:6
  • 23/11/25LAyana Akli#273WTA 125 Buenos Aires · Q13:6 7:5 2:6
  • 04/11/25LJessica Pieri#339WTA 125 Tucuman · R326:7 2:6
  • 03/11/25WAna Candiotto#550WTA 125 Tucuman · QF6:3 4:6 6:3
  • 12/10/25LMaria Paulina Perez GarciaWTA 125 Rio de Janeiro · Q15:4

Elo over the last year

Francesca JonesMaria Florencia Urrutia

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

F. JonesM. Urrutia
Hard court7–750%0–10%
Clay22–1167%1–233%
Grass0–40%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.