WTA 125 RoveretoRound of 32hardbest of three sets

Kubka vs Charaeva 2:0: result and our tips

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Martyna KubkaWTA #166Elo 1514hard 1507
2:0final6:1 6:2
Alina CharaevaWTA #98Elo 1830hard 1799

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 17.5Lost66%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 17.5 games in recent matches: Kubka 7 of 10, Charaeva 17 of 20 (tour average 70%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 21.5Lost37%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Kubka 6 of 10, Charaeva 12 of 20 (tour average 42%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Martyna Kubka19%
Alina Charaeva81%

Elo: M. Kubka 16% · A. Charaeva 84%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Kubka10%
2:1 M. Kubka10%
2:1 A. Charaeva20%
2:0 A. Charaeva61%

First set

Martyna Kubka26%
Alina Charaeva74%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes30%
no71%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.0 · 53%market (no margin): 50%

The 20.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
16.576%24%79%
17.566%34%70%
18.555%45%60%
19.547%53%53%
20.541%60%46%
21.537%63%42%
22.533%67%37%

Sample: 1,365 matches

Games handicap

Alina Charaeva −5.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes18%

tour average 20%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Under 20.0in · 15 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Martyna KubkaAlina Charaeva
3Aces6
1Double faults2
62%First serves in69%
70%First-serve points won55%
60%Second-serve points won33%
4/7Break points converted0/2
8/8Service games held3/7
67%Service points won48%
52%Return points won33%
61Total points won41

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. KubkaTourA. Charaeva
Service points won57%56%57%
Return points won42%44%44%
Service games held68%63%68%
Breaks of serve31%37%37%
Aces per service game0.340.29
Double faults per game0.230.43
Sets with a tie-break11%13%
Tie-breaks won2/311/21
Wins in straight sets17%61%
Matches in the sample1166

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Martyna Kubka

  • 30/09/26LLois Boisson#258WTA 125 Adana · R163:6 2:6
  • 28/09/26WKsenia Efremova#560WTA 125 Adana · R326:3 4:6 6:4
  • 22/09/26LBerfu Cengiz#231WTA 125 Ankara · R322:6 4:6
  • 28/08/26LKristina Liutova#116WTA US Open · Q34:6 0:6
  • 26/08/26WMarina Bassols Ribera#129WTA US Open · Q26:3 6:2
  • 25/08/26WAnnika Penickova#549WTA US Open · Q16:7 6:4 6:2
  • 05/08/26LMona Barthel#180WTA 125 Warsaw · R165:7 4:6
  • 03/08/26WTeodora Kostovic#149WTA 125 Warsaw · R327:6 2:6 6:1
  • 19/06/26LYeon Woo Ku#177WTA 125 Figueira Da Foz · QF6:3 4:6 1:6
  • 18/06/26WAlina Korneeva#74WTA 125 Figueira Da Foz · R167:6 5:7 6:4

Alina Charaeva

Elo over the last year

Martyna KubkaAlina Charaeva

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. KubkaA. Charaeva
Hard court6–555%17–1455%
Clay0–017–1161%
Grass0–04–357%

Head to head

They have not met yet.