Challenger OlbiaChallenger 175Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Kumstat vs Butvilas 2:0: result and our tips

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Jan KumstatATP #191Elo 1936hard 1730
2:0final7:6(4) 7:6(5)
Edas ButvilasATP #199Elo 1725hard 1723

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: ButvilasLost56%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Butvilas: 4 matches in a row winning the first set; Kumstat lost the first set in 7 of the last 20 matches, Butvilas won the first set in 17 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 20.5Won63%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 60% → with the players' profiles 63%

    Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Kumstat 13 of 20, Butvilas 13 of 20 (tour average 54%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Won38%

Where the number comes from: market alone 36% → with the players' profiles 38%

Over 25.5 games in recent matches: Kumstat 7 of 20, Butvilas 10 of 20 (tour average 32%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Jan Kumstat41%
Edas Butvilas59%

Elo: J. Kumstat 51% · E. Butvilas 49%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Kumstat24%
2:1 J. Kumstat17%
2:1 E. Butvilas21%
2:0 E. Butvilas38%

First set

Jan Kumstat43%
Edas Butvilas57%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 50%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.571%29%62%
20.563%37%54%
21.557%43%49%
22.550%50%42%
23.544%56%37%
24.540%60%35%
25.538%63%32%

Sample: 5,815 matches

Games handicap

Edas Butvilas −2.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes41%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Over 22.0in · 26 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Jan KumstatEdas Butvilas
7Aces7
3Double faults2
56%First serves in64%
81%First-serve points won72%
60%Second-serve points won60%
1/4Break points converted1/4
11/12Service games held11/12
71%Service points won68%
32%Return points won29%
87Total points won81

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. KumstatTourE. Butvilas
Service points won67%62%64%
Return points won39%38%39%
Service games held86%76%81%
Breaks of serve26%24%24%
Aces per service game0.680.45
Double faults per game0.240.17
Sets with a tie-break13%13%
Tie-breaks won5/1012/23
Wins in straight sets59%60%
Matches in the sample3472

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Jan Kumstat

Edas Butvilas

Elo over the last year

Jan KumstatEdas Butvilas

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. KumstatE. Butvilas
Hard court3–350%28–1861%
Clay24–486%12–1250%
Grass0–00–20%

Head to head

They have not met yet.