Challenger VillenaChallenger 125Round of 16hardbest of three sets

Llamas Ruiz vs Nesterov 2:1: result and our tips

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Pablo Llamas RuizATP #144Elo 1841hard 1775
2:1final3:6 7:6(5) 6:3
Pyotr NesterovATP #298Elo 1683hard 1695

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 19.5Won63%

Where the number comes from: market alone 65% → with the players' profiles 63%

Llamas Ruiz: 7 matches in a row over 19.5 games

Other tips

  • 1st Set Winner: Llamas RuizLost64%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Llamas Ruiz: 3 matches in a row winning the first set

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Pablo Llamas Ruiz69%
Pyotr Nesterov31%

Elo: P. Llamas Ruiz 61% · P. Nesterov 39%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 P. Llamas Ruiz47%
2:1 P. Llamas Ruiz22%
2:1 P. Nesterov14%
2:0 P. Nesterov18%

First set

Pablo Llamas Ruiz64%
Pyotr Nesterov36%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 50%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.571%29%71%
19.563%37%62%
20.556%44%54%
21.550%50%49%
22.544%56%42%
23.539%62%37%
24.536%64%35%

Sample: 4,763 matches

Games handicap

Pablo Llamas Ruiz −3.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes31%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 21.5in · 31 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Pablo Llamas RuizPyotr Nesterov
4Aces7
2Double faults2
65%First serves in59%
68%First-serve points won70%
53%Second-serve points won44%
4/8Break points converted3/11
11/14Service games held12/16
63%Service points won60%
40%Return points won38%
109Total points won104

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

P. Llamas RuizTourP. Nesterov
Service points won63%62%62%
Return points won40%38%41%
Service games held78%76%75%
Breaks of serve27%24%30%
Aces per service game0.210.34
Double faults per game0.110.15
Sets with a tie-break17%12%
Tie-breaks won13/248/13
Wins in straight sets68%61%
Matches in the sample5844

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Pyotr Nesterov

  • 06/10/26WCarles Hernandez#784Challenger Villena · R326:3 7:6
  • 05/10/26WHynek Barton#288Challenger Villena · Q23:6 6:4 6:1
  • 04/10/26WCharles ChenChallenger Villena · Q13:6 6:3 6:2
  • 29/09/26LGoncalo Marques#594Challenger Porto 2 · R325:7 6:1 4:6
  • 28/09/26WMarko ToPo#330Challenger Porto 2 · Q26:4 6:2
  • 27/09/26WGiorgio Tabacco#700Challenger Porto 2 · Q16:4 4:6 6:3
  • 22/09/26LCarlos Taberner#361Challenger Plovdiv 4 · R324:6 6:1 0:6
  • 01/09/26LYanaki Milev#619Challenger Plovdiv 3 · R326:7 6:3 4:6
  • 09/08/26LGabriele Piraino#392Challenger Plovdiv 2 · F1:6 6:7
  • 08/08/26WRadu Mihai Papoe#326Challenger Plovdiv 2 · SF7:5 6:3

Elo over the last year

Pablo Llamas RuizPyotr Nesterov

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

P. Llamas RuizP. Nesterov
Hard court12–1152%13–668%
Clay23–874%15–1060%
Grass2–250%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

  • 05/10/26WLuca Nardi#251Challenger Villena · R326:1 7:6

Pyotr Nesterov

  • 04/10/26WCharles ChenChallenger Villena · Q13:6 6:3 6:2
  • 05/10/26WHynek Barton#288Challenger Villena · Q23:6 6:4 6:1
  • 06/10/26WCarles Hernandez#784Challenger Villena · R326:3 7:6

See also