ATP Lyon250Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Maestrelli vs Gojo 1:2: result and our tips

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Francesco MaestrelliATP #171Elo 1646hard 1662
1:2final6:4 3:6 6:7(6)
Borna GojoATP #148Elo 1785hard 1781

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: GojoLost61%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Maestrelli lost the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches, Gojo won the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Francesco Maestrelli33%
Borna Gojo67%

Elo: F. Maestrelli 34% · B. Gojo 67%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 F. Maestrelli20%
2:1 F. Maestrelli14%
2:1 B. Gojo23%
2:0 B. Gojo43%

First set

Francesco Maestrelli38%
Borna Gojo62%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 54%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.575%25%68%
20.567%33%60%
21.560%40%54%
22.554%47%46%
23.545%55%39%
24.540%60%38%
25.538%62%34%

Sample: 5,237 matches

Games handicap

Borna Gojo −2.555%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes48%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 32 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Francesco MaestrelliBorna Gojo
8Aces17
5Double faults4
70%First serves in68%
70%First-serve points won75%
45%Second-serve points won39%
2/7Break points converted2/6
13/15Service games held14/16
63%Service points won64%
36%Return points won38%
106Total points won111

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

F. MaestrelliTourB. Gojo
Service points won63%62%68%
Return points won36%38%37%
Service games held78%76%86%
Breaks of serve20%24%22%
Aces per service game0.590.91
Double faults per game0.280.28
Sets with a tie-break21%19%
Tie-breaks won15/3013/20
Wins in straight sets56%75%
Matches in the sample5847

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Francesco Maestrelli

  • 15/10/26LMaxim Mrva#234Challenger Olbia · R163:6 4:6
  • 13/10/26WMili Poljicak#270Challenger Olbia · R326:2 6:3
  • 06/10/26LOliver Tarvet#289Challenger Villena · R326:4 3:6 4:6
  • 21/09/26LAndrea Guerrieri#166Challenger Saint Tropez · R323:6 7:6 3:6
  • 18/09/26LSascha Gueymard Wayenburg#181Challenger Rennes · QF0:6 3:6
  • 17/09/26WYanis Ghazouani Durand#527Challenger Rennes · R164:6 7:6 6:3
  • 16/09/26WArthur Nagel#356Challenger Rennes · R326:4 7:6
  • 11/09/26LMaks Kaśnikowski#214Challenger Istanbul 3 · QF0:6 6:2 1:6
  • 09/09/26WAlafia Ayeni#434Challenger Istanbul 3 · R166:7 6:1 6:4
  • 08/09/26WJuan Pablo Ficovich#369Challenger Istanbul 3 · R326:2 6:2

Borna Gojo

Elo over the last year

Francesco MaestrelliBorna Gojo

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

F. MaestrelliB. Gojo
Hard court25–1858%29–1271%
Clay2–1017%2–250%
Grass0–30%1–150%

Head to head

They have not met yet.