Mannarino vs Rublev 2:1: result and our tips
·
Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Mannarino lost the first set in 11 of the last 20 matches, Rublev won the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)
Other tips
- Total Games: Over 19.5Won71%
Where the number comes from: market alone 66% → with the players' profiles 71%
Rublev: 7 matches in a row over 19.5 games
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: A. Mannarino 28% · A. Rublev 72%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.8
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 71% | 29% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 63% | 37% | 59% |
| 21.5 | 56% | 44% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 49% | 51% | 45% |
| 23.5 | 42% | 58% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 38% | 62% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 35% | 65% | 34% |
Sample: 3,556 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 38%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 2:1
- Total games Under 22.5out · 28 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Adrian Mannarino | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aces | 13 |
| 1 | Double faults | 3 |
| 75% | First serves in | 63% |
| 77% | First-serve points won | 70% |
| 40% | Second-serve points won | 51% |
| 2/9 | Break points converted | 1/6 |
| 13/14 | Service games held | 12/14 |
| 68% | Service points won | 63% |
| 37% | Return points won | 32% |
| 102 | Total points won | 92 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. Mannarino | Tour | A. Rublev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 62% | 62% | 66% |
| Return points won | 35% | 38% | 37% |
| Service games held | 75% | 76% | 83% |
| Breaks of serve | 18% | 24% | 22% |
| Aces per service game | 0.39 | 0.59 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.17 | 0.21 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 18% | 21% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 13/25 | 17/32 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 46% | 60% | |
| Matches in the sample | 56 | 57 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Adrian Mannarino
- 19/10/26WAleksandar Vukic#116ATP Almaty · R327:6 4:6 6:3
- 11/10/26LKaren Khachanov#25ATP Shanghai · R322:6 4:6
- 09/10/26WFlavio Cobolli#6ATP Shanghai · R646:1 4:6 6:3
- 07/10/26WNikoloz Basilashvili#128ATP Shanghai · R1286:3 2:2
- 29/09/26LPablo Carreno Busta#74ATP Beijing · Q23:6 4:6
- 28/09/26WMiomir Kecmanovic#57ATP Beijing · Q17:6 3:6 7:6
- 27/09/26LDenis Shapovalov#47ATP Chengdu · QF7:6 3:6 2:6
- 25/09/26WAlejandro Tabilo#31ATP Chengdu · R166:4 6:4
- 24/09/26WJuncheng Shang#248ATP Chengdu · R327:6 6:2
- 17/09/26LMatisse Bobichon#515Challenger Rennes · R163:6 5:7
Andrey Rublev
- 09/10/26LRei Sakamoto#124ATP Shanghai · R644:6 4:6
- 04/10/26LAlex de Minaur#8ATP Beijing · QF6:1 2:6 3:6
- 03/10/26WRoman Safiullin#70ATP Beijing · R166:2 3:6 6:4
- 01/10/26WTallon Griekspoor#60ATP Beijing · R326:4 5:7 7:6
- 29/09/26LDaniil Medvedev#5ATP Hangzhou · F5:7 4:6
- 28/09/26WKyrian Jacquet#85ATP Hangzhou · SF7:6 6:1
- 27/09/26WHugo Gaston#93ATP Hangzhou · QF6:7 7:6 6:1
- 25/09/26WRinky Hijikata#86ATP Hangzhou · R166:3 6:3
- 02/09/26LDaniel Merida#42ATP US Open · R647:6 2:6 4:6 4:6
- 31/08/26WOtto Virtanen#121ATP US Open · R1286:7 6:7 6:0 6:2 7:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. Mannarino | A. Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 16–2143% | 19–1458% |
| Clay | 0–80% | 16–673% |
| Grass | 6–555% | 0–20% |
Head to head
A. Mannarino 0–2 A. Rublev
- 04/07/25Winner: Andrey Rublev5:7 2:6 3:6
- 09/10/23Winner: Andrey Rublev3:6 0:6
Road through the tournament
Adrian Mannarino
- 19/10/26WAleksandar Vukic#116ATP Almaty · R327:6 4:6 6:3
Andrey Rublev
First match in this tournament.