Challenger JinanChallenger 175Qualifying round 2hardbest of three setsqualifying

Matsuoka vs McCabe 2:0: result and our tips

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Hayato MatsuokaATP #247Elo 1659hard 1651
2:0final6:3 6:4
James McCabeATP #259Elo 1638hard 1610

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 21.5Lost57%

Where the number comes from: market alone 55% → with the players' profiles 57%

Matsuoka: 5 matches in a row over 21.5 games; Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Matsuoka 10 of 20, McCabe 14 of 20 (tour average 49%)

Long shot
Set Betting: Matsuoka 2-0Won36%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Matsuoka won 2-0 in 9 of the last 20 matches, McCabe lost 0-2 in 11 of the last 20 matches (tour average 33%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Hayato Matsuoka57%
James McCabe43%

Elo: H. Matsuoka 56% · J. McCabe 44%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 H. Matsuoka36%
2:1 H. Matsuoka21%
2:1 J. McCabe17%
2:0 J. McCabe26%

First set

Hayato Matsuoka55%
James McCabe45%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 51%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.572%28%62%
20.564%36%54%
21.557%43%49%
22.551%49%42%
23.544%56%37%
24.541%59%35%
25.538%62%32%

Sample: 5,680 matches

Games handicap

Hayato Matsuoka −1.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes42%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Over 22.5out · 19 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Hayato MatsuokaJames McCabe
6Aces4
1Double faults2
67%First serves in62%
78%First-serve points won63%
56%Second-serve points won39%
4/7Break points converted1/3
8/9Service games held6/10
71%Service points won54%
46%Return points won29%
66Total points won51

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

H. MatsuokaTourJ. McCabe
Service points won63%62%65%
Return points won39%38%35%
Service games held79%76%82%
Breaks of serve26%24%18%
Aces per service game0.340.71
Double faults per game0.260.21
Sets with a tie-break14%25%
Tie-breaks won10/2415/31
Wins in straight sets67%68%
Matches in the sample7455

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Hayato Matsuoka

  • 11/10/26WQian Sun#896Challenger Jinan · Q16:2 6:7 6:4
  • 23/09/26LTaro Daniel#177ATP Hangzhou · Q24:6 6:7
  • 22/09/26WArthur Weber#409ATP Hangzhou · Q16:4 7:5
  • 15/09/26LLloyd Harris#110Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R327:6 5:7 6:7
  • 07/09/26LJake Delaney#357Challenger Shanghai · R326:2 6:7 6:7
  • 01/09/26LEnzo Aguiard#439Challenger Zhangjiagang · R323:6 4:6
  • 16/08/26WAziz Dougaz#430Challenger Astana · F0:6 6:1 7:6
  • 15/08/26WKhumoyun Sultanov#444Challenger Astana · SF3:6 6:3 6:4
  • 14/08/26WFajing Sun#303Challenger Astana · QF7:5 7:5
  • 12/08/26WTakuya Kumasaka#615Challenger Astana · R166:4 6:1

James McCabe

Elo over the last year

Hayato MatsuokaJames McCabe

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

H. MatsuokaJ. McCabe
Hard court42–2662%22–2052%
Clay2–167%0–20%
Grass1–233%6–555%

Head to head

H. Matsuoka 2–0 J. McCabe

  • 26/03/26Winner: Hayato Matsuoka7:5 6:4
  • 22/11/25Winner: Hayato Matsuoka7:5 6:4

Road through the tournament

Hayato Matsuoka

James McCabe

See also