ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Round of 64hardbest of three sets

Medvedev vs Struff 2:1: result and our tips

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Daniil MedvedevATP #6Elo 2126hard 2120
2:1final4:6 6:4 6:3
Jan-Lennard StruffATP #59Elo 1905hard 1843

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Set Betting: Medvedev 2-0Lost66%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Medvedev won 2-0 in 10 of the last 20 matches, Struff lost 0-2 in 8 of the last 20 matches (tour average 32%); Medvedev won 2-0 in 4 of their 7 head-to-head matches

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 22.5Lost63%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 66% → with the players' profiles 63%

    Medvedev: 5 matches in a row under 22.5 games

  • Tie-break in Match: NoWon64%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 69% → with the players' profiles 64%

    Struff: 6 matches in a row without a tie-break

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: YesLost36%

Where the number comes from: market alone 31% → with the players' profiles 36%

A tie-break in 6 of their 10 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Daniil Medvedev86%
Jan-Lennard Struff14%

Elo: D. Medvedev 83% · J.-L. Struff 17%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 D. Medvedev66%
2:1 D. Medvedev19%
2:1 J.-L. Struff7%
2:0 J.-L. Struff8%

First set

Daniil Medvedev78%
Jan-Lennard Struff22%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes26%
no74%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 55%market (no margin): 50%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.581%19%83%
18.572%28%75%
19.562%38%67%
20.552%48%59%
21.545%55%53%
22.537%63%45%
23.531%69%39%

Sample: 1,948 matches

Games handicap

Daniil Medvedev −4.555%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes36%

tour average 37%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 29 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Daniil MedvedevJan-Lennard Struff
21Aces7
5Double faults1
60%First serves in54%
88%First-serve points won84%
49%Second-serve points won35%
3/6Break points converted2/6
13/15Service games held11/14
72%Service points won62%
38%Return points won28%
90Total points won73

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

D. MedvedevTourJ.-L. Struff
Service points won66%62%65%
Return points won40%38%35%
Service games held84%76%81%
Breaks of serve27%24%19%
Aces per service game0.700.72
Double faults per game0.330.25
Sets with a tie-break17%21%
Tie-breaks won10/3018/31
Wins in straight sets69%54%
Matches in the sample6854

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Daniil Medvedev

Jan-Lennard Struff

Elo over the last year

Daniil MedvedevJan-Lennard Struff

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

D. MedvedevJ.-L. Struff
Hard court38–1276%18–1653%
Clay5–456%4–736%
Grass6–367%6–367%

Head to head

D. Medvedev 8–2 J.-L. Struff

  • 03/10/26Winner: Daniil Medvedev6:4 6:3
  • 03/07/26Winner: Jan-Lennard Struff6:7 6:7 5:7
  • 25/02/25Winner: Daniil Medvedev6:4 7:6
  • 14/02/25Winner: Daniil Medvedev6:3 6:2
  • 05/07/24Winner: Daniil Medvedev6:1 6:3 4:6 7:6
  • 29/06/21Winner: Daniil Medvedev6:4 6:1 4:6 7:6
  • 15/06/21Winner: Jan-Lennard Struff6:7 3:6
  • 15/08/19Winner: Daniil Medvedev6:2 6:1
  • 23/02/17Winner: Daniil Medvedev6:3 3:6 7:6
  • 12/07/16Winner: Daniil Medvedev6:4 5:7 6:4

Road through the tournament

Daniil Medvedev

First match in this tournament.

Jan-Lennard Struff

See also