Challenger CaliChallenger 75Round of 32claybest of three sets

Mena vs Aboian 1:2: result and our tips

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Facundo MenaATP #198Elo 1736clay 1753
1:2final6:2 3:6 4:6
Valerio AboianATP #340Elo 1598clay 1600

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: MenaLost67%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 67%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Mena won 9 of the last 10 matches

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 23.5Lost61%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Mena: 7 matches in a row under 23.5 games

  • 1st Set Winner: MenaWon63%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Mena won the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches, Aboian lost the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Long shot
1st Set Winner: AboianLost37%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Aboian won the first set in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Facundo Mena69%
Valerio Aboian31%

Elo: F. Mena 71% · V. Aboian 29%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 F. Mena46%
2:1 F. Mena23%
2:1 V. Aboian14%
2:0 V. Aboian17%

First set

Facundo Mena64%
Valerio Aboian36%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 53%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.568%32%68%
19.560%40%59%
20.554%46%52%
21.547%53%46%
22.541%59%40%
23.538%62%36%
24.535%65%34%

Sample: 4,039 matches

Games handicap

Facundo Mena −3.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes25%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 22.0out · 27 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Facundo MenaValerio Aboian
2Aces2
4Double faults3
62%First serves in42%
69%First-serve points won74%
53%Second-serve points won55%
3/6Break points converted3/8
10/13Service games held11/14
63%Service points won63%
37%Return points won37%
81Total points won82

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

F. MenaTourV. Aboian
Service points won63%62%58%
Return points won39%38%42%
Service games held80%76%69%
Breaks of serve26%24%32%
Aces per service game0.610.41
Double faults per game0.280.20
Sets with a tie-break17%9%
Tie-breaks won9/234/11
Wins in straight sets73%43%
Matches in the sample6153

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Facundo Mena

Valerio Aboian

Elo over the last year

Facundo MenaValerio Aboian

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

F. MenaV. Aboian
Hard court4–544%0–0
Clay33–1963%30–2357%

Head to head

F. Mena 0–3 V. Aboian

  • 30/06/26Winner: Valerio Aboian2:6 0:6
  • 15/04/26Winner: Valerio Aboian5:7 4:6
  • 25/03/25Winner: Valerio Aboian3:6 7:5 1:6