Challenger Guangzhou NanshaChallenger 75Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Milic vs Friend 1:2: result and our tips

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Ognjen MilicATP #363Elo 1536hard 1578
1:2final4:6 7:6(3) 6:7(5)
Jay FriendATP #272Elo 1784hard 1772

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: FriendWon78%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 78%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Friend won 7 of the last 10 matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Ognjen Milic22%
Jay Friend78%

Elo: O. Milic 25% · J. Friend 75%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 O. Milic12%
2:1 O. Milic10%
2:1 J. Friend22%
2:0 J. Friend56%

First set

Ognjen Milic28%
Jay Friend72%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes32%
no69%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.0 · 48%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.579%21%79%
18.570%30%71%
19.561%39%62%
20.552%48%54%
21.546%54%49%
22.540%61%42%
23.534%66%37%

Sample: 3,321 matches

Games handicap

Jay Friend −4.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes30%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 21.0out · 36 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Ognjen MilicJay Friend
17Aces18
4Double faults6
66%First serves in66%
70%First-serve points won86%
49%Second-serve points won55%
2/2Break points converted3/11
14/17Service games held15/17
62%Service points won76%
24%Return points won38%
100Total points won115

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

O. MilicTourJ. Friend
Service points won60%62%64%
Return points won38%38%38%
Service games held73%76%82%
Breaks of serve27%24%23%
Aces per service game0.400.45
Double faults per game0.330.29
Sets with a tie-break10%18%
Tie-breaks won2/711/19
Wins in straight sets43%61%
Matches in the sample2844

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Ognjen Milic

Jay Friend

Elo over the last year

Ognjen MilicJay Friend

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

O. MilicJ. Friend
Hard court8–562%28–1664%
Clay6–940%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.