Challenger JinanChallenger 175Round of 16hardbest of three sets
Shevchenko vs Friend: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 23h 12mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Alexander Shevchenko51%
Jay Friend49%
Elo: A. Shevchenko 46% · J. Friend 54%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 A. Shevchenko31%
2:1 A. Shevchenko19%
2:1 J. Friend19%
2:0 J. Friend30%
First set
Alexander Shevchenko51%
Jay Friend49%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.5 · 56%market (no margin): 50%
The 23.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.8
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 71% | 29% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 63% | 37% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 56% | 44% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 50% | 50% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 44% | 56% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 41% | 59% | 35% |
| 25.5 | 38% | 62% | 32% |
Sample: 5,125 matches
Games handicap
Alexander Shevchenko −0.549%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes41%
tour average 32%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. Shevchenko | Tour | J. Friend | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 63% | 62% | 64% |
| Return points won | 36% | 38% | 38% |
| Service games held | 78% | 76% | 81% |
| Breaks of serve | 19% | 24% | 24% |
| Aces per service game | 0.52 | 0.45 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.20 | 0.28 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 23% | 18% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 18/34 | 11/19 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 61% | |
| Matches in the sample | 61 | 44 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Alexander Shevchenko
- 13/10/26WMiomir Kecmanovic#61Challenger Jinan · R326:3 6:4
- 05/10/26LYoshihito Nishioka#218ATP Shanghai · Q12:6 4:6
- 24/09/26LHubert Hurkacz#34ATP Chengdu · R323:6 6:7
- 30/08/26LDino Prizmic#97ATP US Open · R1286:2 3:6 3:6 7:5 5:7
- 14/08/26LBotic Van de Zandschulp#41ATP Cincinnati · R1284:6 4:6
- 13/08/26LChristopher O'Connell#117ATP Cincinnati · Q24:6 1:6
- 11/08/26WPablo Llamas Ruiz#144ATP Cincinnati · Q16:3 6:4
- 01/08/26LKyrian Jacquet#76ATP Montreal · Q16:4 4:6 3:6
- 21/07/26LJan-Lennard Struff#59ATP Kitzbuhel · R326:3 6:7 4:6
- 18/07/26LStefanos Tsitsipas#43ATP Gstaad · SF4:6 6:3 3:6
Jay Friend
- 13/10/26WAlibek Kachmazov#525Challenger Jinan · R326:7 7:5 6:3
- 11/10/26LAlibek Kachmazov#525Challenger Wuning 3 · F6:4 6:7 6:7
- 10/10/26WKeisuke Saitoh#550Challenger Wuning 3 · SF6:2 6:1
- 09/10/26WRyan Seggerman#620Challenger Wuning 3 · QF7:6 6:2
- 08/10/26WMitsuki Wei Kang Leong#424Challenger Wuning 3 · R166:3 6:3
- 06/10/26WYuta Kikuchi#956Challenger Wuning 3 · R326:1 6:4
- 13/09/26LMax Basing#248Challenger Istanbul 3 · F3:6 6:1 0:6
- 12/09/26WMaks Kaśnikowski#238Challenger Istanbul 3 · SF7:6 6:4
- 11/09/26WYanki Erel#300Challenger Istanbul 3 · QF3:6 6:4 6:3
- 10/09/26WSamir Hamza Reguig#702Challenger Istanbul 3 · R166:2 6:1
Elo over the last year
Alexander ShevchenkoJay Friend
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. Shevchenko | J. Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 14–1942% | 28–1664% |
| Clay | 14–1254% | 0–0 |
| Grass | 0–20% | 0–0 |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Alexander Shevchenko
- 13/10/26WMiomir Kecmanovic#61Challenger Jinan · R326:3 6:4
Jay Friend
- 13/10/26WAlibek Kachmazov#525Challenger Jinan · R326:7 7:5 6:3