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Challenger BrestChallenger 125Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Mochizuki vs Cina 1:2: result and our tips

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Shintaro MochizukiATP #129Elo 1800hard 1752
1:2final0:6 6:4 3:6
Federico CinaATP #142Elo 1784hard 1767

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Won58%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Mochizuki: 4 matches in a row over 20.5 games

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: YesLost31%

Where the number comes from: market alone 35% → with the players' profiles 31%

Mochizuki: 4 matches in a row with a tie-break

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Shintaro Mochizuki39%
Federico Cina61%

Elo: S. Mochizuki 48% · F. Cina 52%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 S. Mochizuki23%
2:1 S. Mochizuki16%
2:1 F. Cina21%
2:0 F. Cina39%

First set

Shintaro Mochizuki42%
Federico Cina58%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 48%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.573%27%71%
19.565%35%62%
20.558%42%54%
21.552%48%49%
22.545%55%42%
23.541%60%37%
24.538%62%35%

Sample: 5,923 matches

Games handicap

F. Cina −2.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes31%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 22.0out · 25 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Shintaro MochizukiFederico Cina
2Aces6
3Double faults1
42%First serves in66%
56%First-serve points won74%
52%Second-serve points won46%
2/7Break points converted5/11
7/12Service games held11/13
54%Service points won65%
35%Return points won47%
75Total points won93

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

S. MochizukiTourF. Cina
Service points won58%62%63%
Return points won40%38%38%
Service games held68%76%78%
Breaks of serve28%24%26%
Aces per service game0.290.36
Double faults per game0.400.22
Sets with a tie-break14%11%
Tie-breaks won14/226/17
Wins in straight sets50%62%
Matches in the sample5965

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Federico Cina

Elo over the last year

Shintaro MochizukiFederico Cina

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

S. MochizukiF. Cina
Hard court18–2641%21–1460%
Clay0–30%15–1354%
Grass8–467%1–150%

Head to head

They have not met yet.