ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Round of 128hardbest of three sets

Molcan vs Cina 2:1: result and our tips

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Alex MolcanATP #84Elo 1917hard 1839
2:1final4:6 6:1 6:2
Federico CinaATP #147Elo 1775hard 1759

Our tips

Our tip
No tie-breakWon59%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

No tie-break in recent matches: Molcan 18 of 20, Cina 15 of 20 (tour average 62%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Alex Molcan60%
Federico Cina40%

Elo: A. Molcan 61% · F. Cina 39%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Molcan37%
2:1 A. Molcan21%
2:1 F. Cina18%
2:0 F. Cina23%

First set

Alex Molcan56%
Federico Cina44%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 51%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.572%28%68%
20.564%36%59%
21.559%41%54%
22.551%50%45%
23.544%56%39%
24.542%58%38%
25.539%61%34%

Sample: 5,760 matches

Games handicap

Alex Molcan −2.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes41%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 25 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Alex MolcanFederico Cina
6Aces11
1Double faults5
67%First serves in57%
74%First-serve points won59%
52%Second-serve points won41%
7/14Break points converted3/5
9/12Service games held6/13
67%Service points won51%
49%Return points won33%
87Total points won67

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. MolcanTourF. Cina
Service points won63%62%63%
Return points won39%38%38%
Service games held78%76%79%
Breaks of serve27%24%26%
Aces per service game0.320.38
Double faults per game0.160.22
Sets with a tie-break11%12%
Tie-breaks won7/146/19
Wins in straight sets61%64%
Matches in the sample5468

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Alex Molcan

Federico Cina

Elo over the last year

Alex MolcanFederico Cina

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. MolcanF. Cina
Hard court7–944%23–1561%
Clay23–1070%15–1354%
Grass3–260%1–150%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Alex Molcan

First match in this tournament.

Federico Cina