Moriya vs Ichikawa: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 65% → with the players' profiles 63%
Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Moriya 14 of 20, Ichikawa 15 of 20 (tour average 62%)
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Moriya lost the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches, Ichikawa won the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: H. Moriya 47% · T. Ichikawa 53%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.7
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 71% | 29% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 62% | 38% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 55% | 45% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 49% | 51% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 43% | 57% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 38% | 62% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 35% | 65% | 35% |
Sample: 4,587 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 32%
Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| H. Moriya | Tour | T. Ichikawa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 61% | 62% | 62% |
| Return points won | 39% | 38% | 39% |
| Service games held | 74% | 76% | 75% |
| Breaks of serve | 27% | 24% | 26% |
| Aces per service game | 0.22 | 0.38 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.30 | 0.22 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 19% | 14% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 8/24 | 4/7 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 56% | 82% | |
| Matches in the sample | 53 | 21 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Hiroki Moriya
- 18/10/26LOmar Jasika#388Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q12:6 3:6
- 07/10/26LKeisuke Saitoh#478Challenger Wuning 3 · R162:6 3:6
- 06/10/26WKeegan Smith#196Challenger Wuning 3 · R323:6 7:6 6:3
- 29/09/26LOmar Jasika#388Challenger Jingshan · Q24:6 4:6
- 28/09/26WJilong HuangChallenger Jingshan · Q16:0 6:4
- 15/09/26LBlake Ellis#445Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R324:6 7:5 3:6
- 11/09/26LYuta Shimizu#376Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · QF7:5 5:7 6:7
- 09/09/26WMaximus Jones#488Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R166:3 7:6
- 07/09/26WDominik Palan#620Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R324:6 6:1 6:2
- 01/09/26LKasidit Samrej#382Challenger Zhangjiagang · R321:6 6:7
Taisei Ichikawa
- 04/10/26LBlake BayldonChallenger Wuning 3 · Q16:7 4:6
- 14/09/26LTimofei Derepasko#609Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · Q25:7 3:6
- 13/09/26WNikita Ianin#980Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · Q16:2 6:2
- 07/09/26LBenjamin O'Connell#941Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · Q27:6 5:7 2:6
- 06/09/26WNoritaka Koizumi#915Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · Q16:4 6:1
- 11/08/26LPetr Bar Biryukov#327Challenger Astana · R322:6 3:6
- 10/08/26WKaran (IND) Singh#437Challenger Astana · Q26:3 3:6 6:1
- 09/08/26WHyeon Chung#577Challenger Astana · Q17:5 6:4
- 29/03/26LMasamichi Imamura#427Challenger Miyazaki · Q13:6 7:6 5:7
- 06/01/26LYuta Shimizu#376Challenger Nonthaburi · R326:3 6:7 4:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| H. Moriya | T. Ichikawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 23–2746% | 11–1052% |
| Clay | 1–150% | 0–0 |
| Grass | 1–150% | 0–0 |
Head to head
They have not met yet.