Challenger MaiaChallenger 125Round of 32claybest of three sets

Nagal vs Rocha 2:1: result and our tips

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Sumit NagalATP #253Elo 1712clay 1716
2:1final3:6 7:5 7:6(5)
Henrique RochaATP #106Elo 1835clay 1828

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 23.5Lost65%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Nagal: 10 matches in a row under 23.5 games

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost66%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Nagal: 10 matches in a row without a deciding set

  • Match Winner: RochaLost76%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 76%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Rocha: 4 wins in a row; Rocha won 7 of the last 10 matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Sumit Nagal25%
Henrique Rocha75%

Elo: S. Nagal 35% · H. Rocha 66%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 S. Nagal14%
2:1 S. Nagal12%
2:1 H. Rocha23%
2:0 H. Rocha52%

First set

Sumit Nagal32%
Henrique Rocha68%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 51%market (no margin): 51%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.576%24%76%
18.567%33%68%
19.558%42%59%
20.551%49%52%
21.546%54%47%
22.540%60%40%
23.536%64%36%

Sample: 3,092 matches

Games handicap

Henrique Rocha −4.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes24%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 20.5in · 34 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Sumit NagalHenrique Rocha
3Aces3
2Double faults1
81%First serves in81%
60%First-serve points won63%
50%Second-serve points won58%
4/9Break points converted4/4
12/16Service games held13/17
58%Service points won62%
38%Return points won42%
100Total points won107

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

S. NagalTourH. Rocha
Service points won60%62%63%
Return points won40%38%40%
Service games held73%76%78%
Breaks of serve28%24%28%
Aces per service game0.170.28
Double faults per game0.230.28
Sets with a tie-break11%17%
Tie-breaks won4/1215/26
Wins in straight sets64%73%
Matches in the sample4567

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Sumit Nagal

Henrique Rocha

Elo over the last year

Sumit NagalHenrique Rocha

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

S. NagalH. Rocha
Hard court5–645%14–1156%
Clay17–1750%25–1366%
Grass0–01–325%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

See also