Nardi vs Holmgren 2:1: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 59% → with the players' profiles 63%
Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Nardi 15 of 20, Holmgren 15 of 20 (tour average 54%)
Where the number comes from: market alone 32% → with the players' profiles 34%
Over 26.5 games in recent matches: Nardi 11 of 20, Holmgren 10 of 20 (tour average 27%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: L. Nardi 58% · A. Holmgren 42%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.8
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 71% | 29% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 63% | 37% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 56% | 44% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 49% | 51% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 44% | 56% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 41% | 59% | 35% |
| 25.5 | 38% | 62% | 32% |
Sample: 5,110 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 32%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 2:1
- Total games Under 22.5out · 30 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Luca Nardi | August Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Aces | 4 |
| 5 | Double faults | 3 |
| 70% | First serves in | 67% |
| 75% | First-serve points won | 71% |
| 42% | Second-serve points won | 52% |
| 3/4 | Break points converted | 2/9 |
| 13/15 | Service games held | 12/15 |
| 65% | Service points won | 64% |
| 36% | Return points won | 35% |
| 98 | Total points won | 92 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| L. Nardi | Tour | A. Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 61% | 62% | 66% |
| Return points won | 39% | 38% | 35% |
| Service games held | 75% | 76% | 82% |
| Breaks of serve | 25% | 24% | 19% |
| Aces per service game | 0.34 | 0.62 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.26 | 0.31 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 22% | 20% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 8/20 | 18/28 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 81% | 67% | |
| Matches in the sample | 37 | 59 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Luca Nardi
- 05/10/26LPablo Llamas Ruiz#144Challenger Villena · R321:6 6:7
- 25/08/26LFederico Cina#147ATP US Open · Q14:6 0:3
- 11/07/26LAndrea Guerrieri#165ATP Umag · Q13:6 6:7
- 24/06/26LOtto Virtanen#107ATP Wimbledon · Q24:6 4:6
- 22/06/26WRio Noguchi#221ATP Wimbledon · Q16:2 6:3
- 15/06/26LRemy Bertola#227Challenger Nottingham 2 · R326:3 6:7 6:7
- 14/06/26WGiles Hussey#311Challenger Nottingham 2 · Q16:3 6:2
- 13/06/26WOscar Weightman#811Challenger Nottingham 2 · Q13:6 6:3 6:4
- 10/06/26LJacob Fearnley#96Challenger Ilkley · R326:4 0:6 3:6
- 04/06/26LRemy Bertola#227Challenger Perugia · R162:6 6:4 3:6
August Holmgren
- 06/10/26LPedro Martinez#130Challenger Villena · R326:2 6:7 5:7
- 02/10/26LHenrique Rocha#106Challenger Porto 2 · QF3:6 6:7
- 01/10/26WAndrea Guerrieri#165Challenger Porto 2 · R167:5 6:1
- 28/09/26WBenjamin Bonzi#92Challenger Porto 2 · R326:3 6:4
- 07/09/26LVadym Ursu#405Challenger Istanbul 3 · R324:6 5:7
- 01/09/26LFelix Balshaw#198Challenger Manacor · R326:7 5:7
- 24/08/26LAndrea Guerrieri#165ATP US Open · Q13:6 7:6 2:6
- 29/07/26LBraden Shick#211Challenger Vancouver · R327:6 3:6 3:6
- 23/07/26LLiam Draxl#219Challenger Winnipeg · R165:7 6:1 4:6
- 21/07/26WGarrett Johns#441Challenger Winnipeg · R326:7 6:2 7:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| L. Nardi | A. Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 10–1343% | 19–2148% |
| Clay | 3–538% | 6–367% |
| Grass | 3–350% | 5–645% |
Head to head
L. Nardi 2–0 A. Holmgren
- 07/11/24Winner: Luca Nardi7:6 7:6
- 16/11/23Winner: Luca Nardi6:3 3:6 7:5