Ostapenko vs Pegula: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 41mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Elo: J. Ostapenko 14% · J. Pegula 86%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.2
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.5 | 76% | 24% | 72% |
| 18.5 | 68% | 32% | 64% |
| 19.5 | 60% | 41% | 56% |
| 20.5 | 52% | 48% | 49% |
| 21.5 | 46% | 54% | 44% |
| 22.5 | 40% | 60% | 38% |
| 23.5 | 36% | 64% | 34% |
Sample: 1,974 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 22%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| J. Ostapenko | Tour | J. Pegula | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 56% | 56% | 62% |
| Return points won | 45% | 44% | 45% |
| Service games held | 64% | 63% | 75% |
| Breaks of serve | 39% | 37% | 37% |
| Aces per service game | 0.35 | 0.37 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.55 | 0.17 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 6% | 8% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 3/6 | 9/13 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 60% | |
| Matches in the sample | 44 | 67 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Jeļena Ostapenko
- 13/10/26WDaria Kasatkina#82WTA Wuhan · R646:1 6:1
- 05/10/26LElise Mertens#14WTA Beijing · R322:6 6:3 3:6
- 03/10/26WPaula Badosa#58WTA Beijing · R647:6 7:5
- 24/09/26LTaylah Preston#86WTA Seoul · R164:6 1:6
- 22/09/26WAnastasia Zakharova#111WTA Seoul · R326:4 6:1
- 01/09/26LTatjana Maria#71WTA US Open · R1286:4 1:6 2:6
- 15/08/26LMagdalena Fręch#56WTA Cincinnati · R641:6 3:6
- 04/08/26LShuai Zhang#81WTA Toronto · R640:6 0:4
- 03/07/26LAryna Sabalenka#2WTA Wimbledon · R324:6 4:6
- 01/07/26WAntonia Ruzic#93WTA Wimbledon · R646:2 6:0
Jessica Pegula
- 10/09/26LAryna Sabalenka#2WTA US Open · SF5:7 2:6
- 09/09/26WEmma Navarro#27WTA US Open · QF3:6 6:4 6:3
- 06/09/26WSorana Cirstea#16WTA US Open · R166:3 6:4
- 04/09/26WLeylah Fernandez#25WTA US Open · R321:6 6:4 6:3
- 02/09/26WSofia Kenin#125WTA US Open · R646:3 6:1
- 30/08/26WElena-Gabriela Ruse#57WTA US Open · R1286:3 6:2
- 23/08/26LCoco Gauff#5WTA Cincinnati · F2:6 4:6
- 22/08/26WIga Świątek#9WTA Cincinnati · SF7:5 4:6 6:4
- 20/08/26WAmanda Anisimova#17WTA Cincinnati · QF6:4 2:6 7:6
- 19/08/26WSorana Cirstea#16WTA Cincinnati · R166:2 4:6 7:5
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| J. Ostapenko | J. Pegula | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 12–1348% | 36–1078% |
| Clay | 7–558% | 9–375% |
| Grass | 5–271% | 7–278% |
Head to head
J. Ostapenko 1–4 J. Pegula
- 09/03/26Winner: Jessica Pegula6:4 3:6 2:6
- 04/10/23Winner: Jeļena Ostapenko6:4 6:2
- 15/02/23Winner: Jessica Pegula2:6 6:2 5:7
- 03/03/21Winner: Jessica Pegula2:6 5:7
- 07/06/15Winner: Jessica Pegula6:4 5:7 4:6
Road through the tournament
Jeļena Ostapenko
- 13/10/26WDaria Kasatkina#82WTA Wuhan · R646:1 6:1
Jessica Pegula
First match in this tournament.