WTA WuhanWTA 1000Round of 64hardbest of three sets

Kasatkina vs Ostapenko 0:2: result and our tips

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Daria KasatkinaWTA #82Elo 1822hard 1792
0:2final1:6 1:6
Jeļena OstapenkoWTA #34Elo 1904hard 1850

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 19.5Lost61%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Kasatkina 14 of 20, Ostapenko 12 of 20 (tour average 56%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 23.5Lost39%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 23.5 games in recent matches: Kasatkina 11 of 20, Ostapenko 9 of 20 (tour average 34%); Over 23.5 games in 4 of their 7 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Daria Kasatkina44%
Jeļena Ostapenko56%

Elo: D. Kasatkina 42% · J. Ostapenko 58%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 D. Kasatkina29%
2:1 D. Kasatkina18%
2:1 J. Ostapenko20%
2:0 J. Ostapenko33%

First set

Daria Kasatkina48%
Jeļena Ostapenko52%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 51%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.569%31%64%
19.561%39%56%
20.554%46%49%
21.549%51%44%
22.543%57%38%
23.539%61%34%
24.537%64%32%

Sample: 2,369 matches

Games handicap

Jeļena Ostapenko −1.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes25%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 21.5in · 14 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Daria KasatkinaJeļena Ostapenko
2Aces7
4Double faults3
75%First serves in62%
30%First-serve points won73%
0%Second-serve points won40%
2/5Break points converted7/9
0/7Service games held5/7
22%Service points won60%
40%Return points won78%
29Total points won60

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

D. KasatkinaTourJ. Ostapenko
Service points won53%56%56%
Return points won48%44%45%
Service games held57%63%64%
Breaks of serve46%37%38%
Aces per service game0.170.34
Double faults per game0.550.55
Sets with a tie-break14%6%
Tie-breaks won6/153/6
Wins in straight sets50%70%
Matches in the sample4243

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Daria Kasatkina

Jeļena Ostapenko

Elo over the last year

Daria KasatkinaJeļena Ostapenko

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

D. KasatkinaJ. Ostapenko
Hard court9–1145%11–1346%
Clay11–569%7–558%
Grass2–433%5–271%

Head to head

D. Kasatkina 2–5 J. Ostapenko

  • 13/01/24Winner: Jeļena Ostapenko3:6 2:6
  • 15/05/23Winner: Jeļena Ostapenko4:6 6:4 0:6
  • 01/07/21Winner: Jeļena Ostapenko1:6 6:3 6:8
  • 24/06/21Winner: Jeļena Ostapenko6:1 5:7 2:6
  • 02/09/17Winner: Daria Kasatkina6:3 6:2
  • 09/04/17Winner: Daria Kasatkina6:3 6:1
  • 19/06/16Winner: Jeļena Ostapenko6:4 2:6 3:6

Road through the tournament

Daria Kasatkina

Jeļena Ostapenko

First match in this tournament.

See also