Ostapenkov vs Vandecasteele 2:0: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Vandecasteele: 4 matches in a row over 20.5 games
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: D. Ostapenkov 57% · Q. Vandecasteele 44%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.1
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 74% | 26% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 66% | 34% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 58% | 42% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 53% | 47% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 46% | 54% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 41% | 59% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 39% | 61% | 35% |
Sample: 5,926 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 32%
Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 2:0
- Total games Over 21.5out · 20 games
- Games handicapnot covered
Match stats
| Daniil Ostapenkov | Quinn Vandecasteele | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Aces | 3 |
| 2 | Double faults | 3 |
| 64% | First serves in | 52% |
| 79% | First-serve points won | 66% |
| 62% | Second-serve points won | 60% |
| 2/4 | Break points converted | 0/3 |
| 10/10 | Service games held | 8/10 |
| 73% | Service points won | 63% |
| 37% | Return points won | 27% |
| 66 | Total points won | 55 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| D. Ostapenkov | Tour | Q. Vandecasteele | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 62% | 62% | 61% |
| Return points won | 39% | 38% | 40% |
| Service games held | 75% | 76% | 74% |
| Breaks of serve | 26% | 24% | 28% |
| Aces per service game | 0.55 | 0.49 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.35 | 0.31 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 22% | 14% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 10/15 | 8/18 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 74% | |
| Matches in the sample | 30 | 54 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Daniil Ostapenkov
- 18/10/26LAlbert Pedrico KravtsovChallenger Fort Worth · Q16:7 5:7
- 01/10/26LAbdullah Shelbayh#308Challenger Columbus · R161:6 5:7
- 29/09/26WRaphael Perot#336Challenger Columbus · R321:6 6:3 6:4
- 28/09/26WQuinn Vandecasteele#469Challenger Columbus · Q26:2 7:6
- 27/09/26WIlija PalavestraChallenger Columbus · Q17:6 6:1
- 21/09/26LTimo Legout#343Challenger San Diego 2 · Q23:6 1:6
- 20/09/26WQuinn Vandecasteele#469Challenger San Diego 2 · Q17:5 4:6 6:3
- 14/09/26LTimo Legout#343Challenger Tiburon · Q23:6 4:6
- 13/09/26WGus GrumetChallenger Tiburon · Q16:2 6:2
- 09/08/26LEgor AgafonovChallenger Astana · Q11:3
Quinn Vandecasteele
- 18/10/26LMichael Antonius#617Challenger Fort Worth · Q16:4 2:6 3:6
- 28/09/26LDaniil Ostapenkov#546Challenger Columbus · Q22:6 6:7
- 27/09/26WPreston StearnsChallenger Columbus · Q16:2 4:6 6:2
- 20/09/26LDaniil Ostapenkov#546Challenger San Diego 2 · Q15:7 6:4 3:6
- 14/09/26LBryce Nakashima#576Challenger Tiburon · Q22:6 4:6
- 13/09/26WNoah Zamora#758Challenger Tiburon · Q16:1 7:5
- 24/08/26LJames Duckworth#68ATP Winston Salem · R642:6 1:6
- 23/08/26WPierre-Hugues Herbert#249ATP Winston Salem · Q23:6 7:6 7:5
- 22/08/26WLi Tu#509ATP Winston Salem · Q16:3 6:2
- 13/08/26LTristan Schoolkate#141Challenger Brownsburg · R166:2 2:6 4:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| D. Ostapenkov | Q. Vandecasteele | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 13–1154% | 22–2151% |
| Clay | 4–267% | 2–340% |
| Grass | 0–0 | 3–350% |
Head to head
D. Ostapenkov 2–0 Q. Vandecasteele
- 28/09/26Winner: D. Ostapenkov6:2 7:6
- 20/09/26Winner: D. Ostapenkov7:5 4:6 6:3