Challenger OlbiaChallenger 175Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Poljicak vs Maestrelli 0:2: result and our tips

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Mili PoljicakATP #286Elo 1703hard 1589
0:2final2:6 3:6
Francesco MaestrelliATP #171Elo 1640hard 1663

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Lost62%

Where the number comes from: market alone 60% → with the players' profiles 62%

Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Poljicak 12 of 20, Maestrelli 17 of 20 (tour average 54%)

Other tips

  • Tie-break in Match: NoWon61%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 65% → with the players' profiles 61%

    Poljicak: 9 matches in a row without a tie-break

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Lost37%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 25.5 games in recent matches: Poljicak 9 of 20, Maestrelli 12 of 20 (tour average 32%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Mili Poljicak41%
Francesco Maestrelli59%

Elo: M. Poljicak 39% · F. Maestrelli 61%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Poljicak24%
2:1 M. Poljicak17%
2:1 F. Maestrelli21%
2:0 F. Maestrelli38%

First set

Mili Poljicak43%
Francesco Maestrelli57%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 51%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.570%30%62%
20.562%38%54%
21.556%44%49%
22.549%51%42%
23.543%57%37%
24.540%60%35%
25.537%63%32%

Sample: 5,821 matches

Games handicap

Francesco Maestrelli −2.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes39%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 22.5in · 17 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Mili PoljicakFrancesco Maestrelli
5Aces4
—Double faults—
61%First serves in85%
50%First-serve points won80%
58%Second-serve points won57%
0/1Break points converted3/8
5/8Service games held8/8
53%Service points won77%
23%Return points won47%
37Total points won59

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. PoljicakTourF. Maestrelli
Service points won63%62%63%
Return points won38%38%36%
Service games held77%76%78%
Breaks of serve24%24%20%
Aces per service game0.510.59
Double faults per game0.210.29
Sets with a tie-break11%22%
Tie-breaks won7/1016/31
Wins in straight sets59%54%
Matches in the sample3857

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Mili Poljicak

Francesco Maestrelli

Elo over the last year

Mili PoljicakFrancesco Maestrelli

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. PoljicakF. Maestrelli
Hard court2–250%24–1857%
Clay20–1459%2–1017%
Grass0–00–30%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

See also