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Challenger NingboChallenger 75Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Poljicak vs Shimizu 1:2: result and our tips

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Mili PoljicakATP #274Elo 1680hard 1568
1:2final7:6(2) 3:6 4:6
Yuta ShimizuATP #404Elo 1637hard 1625

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Tie-break in Match: NoLost64%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Poljicak: 10 matches in a row without a tie-break

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 19.5Won68%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Poljicak 13 of 20, Shimizu 17 of 20 (tour average 62%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Won36%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 25.5 games in recent matches: Poljicak 9 of 20, Shimizu 10 of 20 (tour average 32%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Mili Poljicak48%
Yuta Shimizu52%

Elo: M. Poljicak 42% · Y. Shimizu 58%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Poljicak29%
2:1 M. Poljicak19%
2:1 Y. Shimizu20%
2:0 Y. Shimizu33%

First set

Mili Poljicak48%
Yuta Shimizu52%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 47%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.568%32%62%
20.560%40%54%
21.555%45%49%
22.547%53%42%
23.542%58%37%
24.540%60%35%
25.536%64%32%

Sample: 5,305 matches

Games handicap

Y. Shimizu −0.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes36%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 22.0in · 32 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Mili PoljicakYuta Shimizu
13Aces2
1Double faults3
67%First serves in67%
77%First-serve points won79%
52%Second-serve points won56%
0/1Break points converted2/4
13/15Service games held16/16
69%Service points won72%
28%Return points won32%
90Total points won101

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. PoljicakTourY. Shimizu
Service points won62%62%62%
Return points won38%38%38%
Service games held77%76%76%
Breaks of serve23%24%24%
Aces per service game0.510.40
Double faults per game0.200.23
Sets with a tie-break11%20%
Tie-breaks won7/1015/24
Wins in straight sets59%65%
Matches in the sample3950

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Mili Poljicak

Yuta Shimizu

  • 18/10/26LMax Purcell#616Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q13:6 1:6
  • 01/10/26LBernard Tomic#179Challenger Jingshan · R167:5 2:6 6:7
  • 29/09/26WStefanos Sakellaridis#132Challenger Jingshan · R327:6 6:2
  • 15/09/26LPhilip Sekulic#338Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R322:6 6:2 5:7
  • 12/09/26LArthur Weber#398Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · SF4:6 4:6
  • 11/09/26WHiroki Moriya#482Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · QF5:7 7:5 7:6
  • 09/09/26WKasidit Samrej#368Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R166:4 6:4
  • 08/09/26WAditya Balsekar#883Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R326:1 6:1
  • 18/08/26LAnton Matusevich#309Challenger Roehampton · R324:6 5:7
  • 23/07/26LJohannus Monday#443Challenger Winnipeg · R166:4 3:6 3:6

Elo over the last year

Mili PoljicakYuta Shimizu

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. PoljicakY. Shimizu
Hard court2–340%24–2351%
Clay20–1459%2–167%

Head to head

They have not met yet.