Challenger FlorenceChallenger 50Qualifying round 2claybest of three setsqualifying

Popko vs Basile 0:2: result and our tips

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Dmitry PopkoATP #513Elo 1571clay 1556
0:2final4:6 6:7(5)
Pierluigi BasileATP #514Elo 1610clay 1611

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Dmitry Popko47%
Pierluigi Basile53%

Elo: D. Popko 42% · P. Basile 58%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 D. Popko28%
2:1 D. Popko19%
2:1 P. Basile20%
2:0 P. Basile33%

First set

Dmitry Popko47%
Pierluigi Basile53%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 51%market (no margin): 47%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.571%29%68%
19.562%38%59%
20.555%45%52%
21.549%51%47%
22.543%57%40%
23.540%60%36%
24.537%63%34%

Sample: 4,442 matches

Games handicap

Pierluigi Basile −1.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes26%

tour average 27%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 23 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Dmitry PopkoPierluigi Basile
1Aces4
2Double faults5
70%First serves in58%
71%First-serve points won67%
52%Second-serve points won62%
1/6Break points converted2/3
9/11Service games held10/11
65%Service points won65%
35%Return points won35%
76Total points won82

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

D. PopkoTourP. Basile
Service points won59%62%61%
Return points won41%38%37%
Service games held72%76%76%
Breaks of serve30%24%24%
Aces per service game0.350.44
Double faults per game0.260.33
Sets with a tie-break7%22%
Tie-breaks won1/25/13
Wins in straight sets67%58%
Matches in the sample1125

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Dmitry Popko

Pierluigi Basile

  • 18/10/26WFederico Iannaccone#579Challenger Florence · Q16:3 6:2
  • 06/10/26LMassimo Giunta#365Challenger Palermo · R326:4 4:6 1:6
  • 01/10/26LMartin Krumich#269Challenger Bari · R163:6 1:6
  • 29/09/26WMax Wiskandt#378Challenger Bari · R326:7 7:6 6:3
  • 28/09/26WOleksandr Ovcharenko#616Challenger Bari · Q23:6 7:5 6:1
  • 27/09/26WKai Wehnelt#631Challenger Bari · Q15:7 6:4 7:6
  • 21/09/26LGiovanni Oradini#667Challenger Genoa 2 · Q26:4 3:6 1:6
  • 20/09/26WGuillermo TunasChallenger Genoa 2 · Q16:0 6:2
  • 15/09/26LJuan Cruz Martin Manzano#371Challenger Biella · R322:6 1:6
  • 14/09/26WGiovanni Oradini#667Challenger Biella · Q26:4 7:6

Elo over the last year

Dmitry PopkoPierluigi Basile

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

D. PopkoP. Basile
Hard court0–20%1–325%
Clay3–633%11–1052%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Dmitry Popko

Pierluigi Basile