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Challenger BrestChallenger 125Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Poullain vs Trufelli 2:0: result and our tips

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Lucas PoullainATP #328Elo 1712hard 1707
2:0final6:3 6:1
Timeo TrufelliElo 1425hard 1415

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Lucas Poullain91%
Timeo Trufelli9%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 L. Poullain72%
2:1 L. Poullain17%
2:1 T. Trufelli5%
2:0 T. Trufelli6%

First set

Lucas Poullain82%
Timeo Trufelli18%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes22%
no78%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 19.5 · 55%market (no margin): 47%

The 19.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 20.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
15.585%15%94%
16.575%25%88%
17.564%36%80%
18.555%45%71%
19.545%55%63%
20.538%62%54%
21.533%67%49%

Sample: 1,507 matches

Games handicap

L. Poullain −5.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes22%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 19.5in · 16 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Lucas PoullainTimeo Trufelli
0Aces4
2Double faults2
55%First serves in52%
77%First-serve points won68%
67%Second-serve points won26%
4/5Break points converted0/0
8/8Service games held4/8
72%Service points won48%
52%Return points won28%
59Total points won36

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

L. PoullainTourT. Trufelli
Service points won62%62%62%
Return points won41%38%36%
Service games held76%76%76%
Breaks of serve31%24%21%
Aces per service game0.220.41
Double faults per game0.120.27
Sets with a tie-break11%10%
Tie-breaks won4/90/1
Wins in straight sets74%0%
Matches in the sample364

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Lucas Poullain

Timeo Trufelli

  • 11/10/26LThijs Boogaard#473Challenger Roanne · Q17:5 3:6 4:6
  • 01/03/26LJelle Sels#557Challenger Thionville · Q14:6 6:7
  • 23/02/26LAntoine Ghibaudo#489Challenger St. Brieuc · Q24:6 4:6
  • 22/02/26WEero Vasa#475Challenger St. Brieuc · Q16:3 3:6 6:3

Elo over the last year

Lucas PoullainTimeo Trufelli

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

L. PoullainT. Trufelli
Hard court20–1067%1–325%
Clay3–350%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.