Challenger VillenaChallenger 125Round of 16hardbest of three sets

Rincon vs Martinez 0:2: result and our tips

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Daniel RinconATP #245Elo 1740hard 1725
0:2final5:7 4:6
Pedro MartinezATP #130Elo 1749hard 1738

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Daniel Rincon54%
Pedro Martinez46%

Elo: D. Rincon 48% · P. Martinez 52%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 D. Rincon35%
2:1 D. Rincon20%
2:1 P. Martinez18%
2:0 P. Martinez27%

First set

Daniel Rincon54%
Pedro Martinez46%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 50%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.572%29%71%
19.563%37%62%
20.557%43%54%
21.550%50%49%
22.544%56%42%
23.541%59%37%
24.538%62%35%

Sample: 5,398 matches

Games handicap

Daniel Rincon −1.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes29%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Under 22.0out · 22 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Daniel RinconPedro Martinez
8Aces2
2Double faults0
65%First serves in72%
65%First-serve points won74%
52%Second-serve points won59%
2/2Break points converted4/9
7/11Service games held9/11
61%Service points won70%
30%Return points won39%
58Total points won68

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

D. RinconTourP. Martinez
Service points won60%62%60%
Return points won39%38%40%
Service games held74%76%72%
Breaks of serve25%24%29%
Aces per service game0.370.14
Double faults per game0.190.22
Sets with a tie-break20%13%
Tie-breaks won13/228/19
Wins in straight sets48%68%
Matches in the sample4763

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Daniel Rincon

Pedro Martinez

Elo over the last year

Daniel RinconPedro Martinez

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

D. RinconP. Martinez
Hard court11–1150%11–955%
Clay14–1156%20–2248%
Grass0–00–10%

Head to head

D. Rincon 1–0 P. Martinez

  • 16/06/26Winner: Daniel Rincon7:6 7:6

Road through the tournament

Daniel Rincon

Pedro Martinez