ATP Lyon250Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Rodionov vs Herbert 1:2: result and our tips

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Jurij RodionovATP #137Elo 1790hard 1765
1:2final7:6(5) 5:7 0:6
Pierre-Hugues HerbertATP #290Elo 1696hard 1702

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 25.5Lost59%

Where the number comes from: market alone 61% → with the players' profiles 59%

Under 25.5 games in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost60%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    No third set in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Long shot
1st Set Winner: HerbertLost48%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Herbert won the first set in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Jurij Rodionov55%
Pierre-Hugues Herbert45%

Elo: J. Rodionov 59% · P.-H. Herbert 41%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Rodionov34%
2:1 J. Rodionov21%
2:1 P.-H. Herbert20%
2:0 P.-H. Herbert26%

First set

Jurij Rodionov54%
Pierre-Hugues Herbert46%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 56%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.569%31%60%
21.563%37%54%
22.556%44%46%
23.548%52%39%
24.544%56%38%
25.541%59%35%
26.537%63%30%

Sample: 5,543 matches

Games handicap

Jurij Rodionov −1.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes47%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 31 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Jurij RodionovPierre-Hugues Herbert
7Aces13
5Double faults3
60%First serves in63%
64%First-serve points won77%
50%Second-serve points won65%
1/2Break points converted5/12
10/15Service games held14/15
58%Service points won73%
27%Return points won42%
84Total points won105

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. RodionovTourP.-H. Herbert
Service points won64%62%65%
Return points won38%38%35%
Service games held80%76%81%
Breaks of serve24%24%20%
Aces per service game0.500.55
Double faults per game0.240.43
Sets with a tie-break16%18%
Tie-breaks won15/256/17
Wins in straight sets70%61%
Matches in the sample6639

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Jurij Rodionov

Pierre-Hugues Herbert

Elo over the last year

Jurij RodionovPierre-Hugues Herbert

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. RodionovP.-H. Herbert
Hard court20–1361%11–1150%
Clay14–1058%5–838%
Grass6–367%2–250%

Head to head

J. Rodionov 0–3 P.-H. Herbert

  • 12/10/25Winner: Pierre-Hugues Herbert6:7 4:6
  • 15/03/25Winner: Pierre-Hugues Herbert4:6 2:6
  • 20/10/18Winner: Pierre-Hugues Herbert1:6 2:6

See also