Challenger RoanneChallenger 125Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets
Gaston vs Herbert: prediction and tips
·
Our tips
Tip in 11h 12mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Hugo Gaston69%
Pierre-Hugues Herbert31%
Elo: H. Gaston 65% · P.-H. Herbert 35%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 H. Gaston46%
2:1 H. Gaston22%
2:1 P.-H. Herbert14%
2:0 P.-H. Herbert18%
First set
Hugo Gaston64%
Pierre-Hugues Herbert36%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 53%market (no margin): 51%
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.3
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 67% | 33% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 59% | 41% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 53% | 47% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 47% | 53% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 41% | 60% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 38% | 62% | 35% |
| 25.5 | 35% | 66% | 32% |
Sample: 4,898 matches
Games handicap
Hugo Gaston −3.550%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes37%
tour average 32%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| H. Gaston | Tour | P.-H. Herbert | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 61% | 62% | 65% |
| Return points won | 40% | 38% | 35% |
| Service games held | 74% | 76% | 82% |
| Breaks of serve | 28% | 24% | 20% |
| Aces per service game | 0.25 | 0.55 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.19 | 0.43 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 11% | 19% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 11/18 | 6/17 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 58% | 61% | |
| Matches in the sample | 66 | 38 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Hugo Gaston
- 12/10/26WDaniel Jade#621Challenger Roanne · R326:1 6:1
- 05/10/26LLiam Draxl#219ATP Shanghai · Q15:7 4:6
- 27/09/26LAndrey Rublev#23ATP Hangzhou · QF7:6 6:7 1:6
- 25/09/26WJaime Faria#60ATP Hangzhou · R164:6 7:6 6:4
- 24/09/26WSho Shimabukuro#109ATP Hangzhou · R326:4 6:4
- 30/08/26LDaniil Medvedev#6ATP US Open · R1284:6 2:6 4:6
- 28/08/26WColton Smith#212ATP US Open · Q31:6 6:4 6:2
- 26/08/26WAndre Ilagan#194ATP US Open · Q26:1 6:3
- 25/08/26WGuido Ivan Justo#188ATP US Open · Q17:5 6:3
- 22/08/26LLuca Van Assche#45Challenger Quebec City · SF4:6 4:6
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
- 13/10/26WNorbert Gombos#355Challenger Roanne · R326:3 6:2
- 28/09/26LSascha Gueymard Wayenburg#189Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · R324:6 5:7
- 24/08/26LLorenzo Sonego#87ATP Winston Salem · R646:7 6:4 3:6
- 23/08/26LQuinn Vandecasteele#473ATP Winston Salem · Q26:3 6:7 5:7
- 22/08/26WKenta (2004) Miyoshi#450ATP Winston Salem · Q16:2 4:6 6:2
- 18/07/26LSandro Kopp#316ATP Kitzbuhel · Q14:6 4:6
- 11/07/26LThiago Monteiro#235ATP Gstaad · Q16:7 7:6 6:7
- 22/06/26LPaul Jubb#440ATP Wimbledon · Q15:7 6:7
- 08/06/26LMartin Landaluce#73ATP Stuttgart · R327:5 3:6 4:6
- 07/06/26WMert Alkaya#317ATP Stuttgart · Q27:6 6:4
Elo over the last year
Hugo GastonPierre-Hugues Herbert
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| H. Gaston | P.-H. Herbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 23–1462% | 11–1052% |
| Clay | 12–1250% | 5–838% |
| Grass | 3–260% | 2–250% |
Head to head
H. Gaston 1–1 P.-H. Herbert
- 28/02/26Winner: Pierre-Hugues Herbert5:7 2:6
- 05/02/24Winner: Hugo Gaston3:6 6:2 6:3
Road through the tournament
Hugo Gaston
- 12/10/26WDaniel Jade#621Challenger Roanne · R326:1 6:1
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
- 13/10/26WNorbert Gombos#355Challenger Roanne · R326:3 6:2