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ATP Basel500Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Rune vs Halys 2:1: result and our tips

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Holger RuneElo 2053hard 2023
2:1final6:4 6:7(2) 7:6(5)
Quentin HalysATP #45Elo 1966hard 1920

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 21.5Won60%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Halys: 4 matches in a row over 21.5 games

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: YesWon42%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Halys: 5 matches in a row with a tie-break

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Holger Rune50%
Quentin Halys50%

Elo: H. Rune 64% · Q. Halys 36%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 H. Rune30%
2:1 H. Rune20%
2:1 Q. Halys20%
2:0 Q. Halys30%

First set

Holger Rune50%
Quentin Halys50%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 24.5 · 56%market (no margin): 49%

The 24.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.574%26%68%
20.566%34%60%
21.560%40%54%
22.552%49%46%
23.545%55%40%
24.544%56%38%
25.539%61%35%

Sample: 5,229 matches

Games handicap

H. Rune −0.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes42%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 24.5out · 36 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Holger RuneQuentin Halys
13Aces32
3Double faults5
61%First serves in67%
71%First-serve points won85%
64%Second-serve points won50%
1/3Break points converted0/5
17/17Service games held16/17
68%Service points won73%
27%Return points won32%
110Total points won118

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

H. RuneTourQ. Halys
Service points won—62%67%
Return points won—38%34%
Service games held—76%86%
Breaks of serve—24%16%
Aces per service game—0.83
Double faults per game—0.25
Sets with a tie-break—28%
Tie-breaks won—30/48
Wins in straight sets—63%
Matches in the sample—67

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Holger Rune

Quentin Halys

Elo over the last year

Holger RuneQuentin Halys

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

H. RuneQ. Halys
Hard court0–20%23–1856%
Clay0–013–765%
Grass0–02–433%

Head to head

H. Rune 2–0 Q. Halys

  • 30/05/25Winner: H. Rune4:6 6:2 5:7 7:5 6:2
  • 06/07/24Winner: H. Rune1:6 6:7 6:4 7:6 6:1