Sabalenka vs Li: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 8h 11mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Elo: A. Sabalenka 91% · A. Li 9%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 19.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 20.8
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.5 | 75% | 25% | 82% |
| 17.5 | 64% | 36% | 72% |
| 18.5 | 55% | 45% | 63% |
| 19.5 | 46% | 54% | 55% |
| 20.5 | 39% | 61% | 49% |
| 21.5 | 36% | 64% | 44% |
| 22.5 | 31% | 69% | 38% |
Sample: 1,134 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 22%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. Sabalenka | Tour | A. Li | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 64% | 56% | 59% |
| Return points won | 44% | 44% | 43% |
| Service games held | 80% | 63% | 71% |
| Breaks of serve | 36% | 37% | 32% |
| Aces per service game | 0.48 | 0.43 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.22 | 0.25 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 14% | 12% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 13/19 | 9/17 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 56% | |
| Matches in the sample | 62 | 58 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Aryna Sabalenka
- 04/10/26LNikola Bartunkova#29WTA Beijing · R324:6 3:6
- 02/10/26WRenata Zarazua#85WTA Beijing · R646:1 6:3
- 12/09/26LElena Rybakina#1WTA US Open · F4:6 7:5 2:6
- 10/09/26WJessica Pegula#4WTA US Open · SF7:5 6:2
- 08/09/26WLinda Nosková#8WTA US Open · QF7:6 3:6 7:6
- 06/09/26WTaylor Townsend#89WTA US Open · R166:4 6:3
- 04/09/26WKamilla Rakhimova#69WTA US Open · R326:3 6:4
- 02/09/26WPolina Iatcenko#142WTA US Open · R646:1 6:1
- 31/08/26WCamila Osorio#67WTA US Open · R1286:2 6:4
- 20/08/26LSara Bejlek#30WTA Cincinnati · R166:7 4:6
Ann Li
- 13/10/26WCamila Osorio#67WTA Wuhan · R646:1 3:0
- 07/10/26LElina Svitolina#6WTA Beijing · R162:6 3:6
- 05/10/26WBelinda Bencic#12WTA Beijing · R326:4 6:3
- 03/10/26WAshlyn Krueger#68WTA Beijing · R646:4 6:2
- 04/09/26LLinda Nosková#8WTA US Open · R322:6 7:6 2:6
- 02/09/26WDonna Vekic#36WTA US Open · R645:7 7:6 6:4
- 31/08/26WAntonia Ruzic#93WTA US Open · R1287:5 6:1
- 28/08/26LDiane Parry#32WTA Monterrey · SF6:7 4:6
- 27/08/26WAlycia Parks#64WTA Monterrey · QF6:2 6:3
- 24/08/26WCamila Osorio#67WTA Monterrey · R326:1 6:2
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. Sabalenka | A. Li | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 38–686% | 21–1755% |
| Clay | 8–373% | 9–660% |
| Grass | 5–271% | 2–340% |
Head to head
A. Sabalenka 3–0 A. Li
- 21/03/26Winner: Aryna Sabalenka7:6 6:4
- 16/08/23Winner: Aryna Sabalenka7:5 2:6 6:4
- 12/02/21Winner: Aryna Sabalenka6:3 6:1
Road through the tournament
Aryna Sabalenka
First match in this tournament.
Ann Li
- 13/10/26WCamila Osorio#67WTA Wuhan · R646:1 3:0