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ATP Vienna500Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Schwaerzler vs Droguet 1:2: result and our tips

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Joel SchwaerzlerATP #172Elo 1708hard 1706
1:2final3:6 6:3 5:7
Titouan DroguetATP #72Elo 1975hard 1941

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Won64%

Where the number comes from: market alone 60% → with the players' profiles 64%

Droguet: 14 matches in a row over 20.5 games; Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Schwaerzler 11 of 20, Droguet 17 of 20 (tour average 59%)

Other tips

  • 1st Set Winner: DroguetWon69%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Schwaerzler lost the first set in 10 of the last 20 matches, Droguet won the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%); Droguet: 4 matches in a row winning the first set

  • Match Winner: DroguetWon74%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 74%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Droguet won 8 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Won36%

Where the number comes from: market alone 34% → with the players' profiles 36%

Over 25.5 games in recent matches: Schwaerzler 8 of 20, Droguet 12 of 20 (tour average 34%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Joel Schwaerzler28%
Titouan Droguet72%

Elo: J. Schwaerzler 21% · T. Droguet 79%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Schwaerzler16%
2:1 J. Schwaerzler13%
2:1 T. Droguet23%
2:0 T. Droguet49%

First set

Joel Schwaerzler33%
Titouan Droguet68%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 51%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.573%28%68%
20.565%36%60%
21.558%43%54%
22.551%49%46%
23.543%57%39%
24.539%61%38%
25.537%64%35%

Sample: 4,350 matches

Games handicap

T. Droguet −3.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes46%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 30 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Joel SchwaerzlerTitouan Droguet
9Aces7
1Double faults0
67%First serves in66%
75%First-serve points won71%
52%Second-serve points won63%
2/6Break points converted3/9
12/15Service games held13/15
67%Service points won68%
32%Return points won33%
90Total points won92

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. SchwaerzlerTourT. Droguet
Service points won64%62%65%
Return points won36%38%37%
Service games held80%76%82%
Breaks of serve19%24%23%
Aces per service game0.490.66
Double faults per game0.250.19
Sets with a tie-break24%21%
Tie-breaks won23/3627/42
Wins in straight sets50%56%
Matches in the sample6279

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Joel Schwaerzler

  • 17/10/26LFederico Cina#142ATP Brussels · Q13:6 6:7
  • 08/10/26LJack Pinnington Jones#188Challenger Villena · R161:6 3:6
  • 06/10/26WFelix Balshaw#178Challenger Villena · R326:7 6:3 7:5
  • 03/10/26LSascha Gueymard Wayenburg#181Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · SF4:6 2:6
  • 02/10/26WLucas Poullain#328Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · QF6:4 6:1
  • 01/10/26WHarry Wendelken#212Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · R166:4 6:3
  • 29/09/26WAlberto Barroso Campos#711Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · R326:3 7:5
  • 22/09/26LMaxime Chazal#424Challenger Plovdiv 4 · R326:2 4:6 6:7
  • 03/09/26LLuca Potenza#564Challenger Manacor · R162:6 2:6
  • 01/09/26WMax Basing#258Challenger Manacor · R326:3 6:7 6:4

Titouan Droguet

Elo over the last year

Joel SchwaerzlerTitouan Droguet

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. SchwaerzlerT. Droguet
Hard court20–1361%36–1472%
Clay14–1450%15–963%
Grass0–10%3–260%

Head to head

They have not met yet.