WTA 125 LisbonRound of 32claybest of three sets

Semenistaja vs Lollia 1:2: result and our tips

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Darja SemenistajaWTA #131Elo 1584clay 1598
1:2final6:7(5) 7:5 2:6
Mathilde LolliaWTA #640Elo 1652clay 1661

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Darja Semenistaja85%
Mathilde Lollia15%

Elo: D. Semenistaja 41% · M. Lollia 59%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 D. Semenistaja66%
2:1 D. Semenistaja18%
2:1 M. Lollia8%
2:0 M. Lollia8%

First set

Darja Semenistaja78%
Mathilde Lollia22%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes26%
no74%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 19.5 · 57%market (no margin): 51%

The 19.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 20.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
15.582%18%86%
16.571%29%78%
17.561%39%68%
18.550%50%60%
19.543%57%52%
20.536%64%46%
21.532%68%42%

Sample: 754 matches

Games handicap

Darja Semenistaja −6.542%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes17%

tour average 20%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 19.5out · 33 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Darja SemenistajaMathilde Lollia
3Aces0
1Double faults5
73%First serves in67%
58%First-serve points won62%
50%Second-serve points won49%
4/12Break points converted5/14
11/16Service games held12/16
56%Service points won58%
42%Return points won44%
116Total points won123

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

D. SemenistajaTourM. Lollia
Service points won54%56%—
Return points won45%44%—
Service games held57%63%—
Breaks of serve37%37%—
Aces per service game0.14—
Double faults per game0.13—
Sets with a tie-break8%—
Tie-breaks won9/10—
Wins in straight sets63%—
Matches in the sample52—

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Darja Semenistaja

  • 16/09/26LTeodora Kostovic#149WTA Sao Paulo · R164:6 1:6
  • 15/09/26WHayu Kinoshita#221WTA Sao Paulo · R327:5 6:4
  • 07/09/26LAnastasia Tikhonova#254WTA 125 Barranquilla · R324:6 6:4 5:7
  • 01/09/26LAnastasia Potapova#26WTA US Open · R1282:6 2:6
  • 28/08/26LStorm Hunter#150WTA US Open · Q34:6 1:6
  • 26/08/26WAlexandra Shubladze#132WTA US Open · Q27:6 6:4
  • 25/08/26WHayu Kinoshita#221WTA US Open · Q16:2 7:5
  • 28/07/26LMia Ristic#183WTA 125 Targu Mures · R322:6 3:6
  • 21/07/26LSinja Kraus#75WTA Hamburg · R326:3 3:6 2:6
  • 14/07/26LJulia Riera#138WTA 125 Rome · R321:6 6:4 1:6

Mathilde Lollia

Elo over the last year

Darja SemenistajaMathilde Lollia

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

D. SemenistajaM. Lollia
Hard court11–1444%0–0
Clay11–1248%2–0100%
Grass2–250%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Darja Semenistaja

First match in this tournament.

Mathilde Lollia