WTA OsakaWTA 250Qualifying round 2hardbest of three setsqualifying

Stoiana vs Ishii 2:0: result and our tips

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Mary StoianaWTA #114Elo 1771hard 1728
2:0final6:4 7:5
Sayaka IshiiWTA #589Elo 1450hard 1520

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 19.5Lost59%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Ishii: 3 matches in a row under 19.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Under 17.5Lost41%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Ishii: 3 matches in a row under 17.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Mary Stoiana90%
Sayaka Ishii10%

Elo: M. Stoiana 77% · S. Ishii 23%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Stoiana73%
2:1 M. Stoiana18%
2:1 S. Ishii5%
2:0 S. Ishii5%

First set

Mary Stoiana83%
Sayaka Ishii17%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes22%
no78%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 18.5 · 52%market (no margin): 49%

The 18.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 20.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
15.580%20%89%
16.569%31%82%
17.560%41%72%
18.548%52%63%
19.541%59%55%
20.534%67%49%
21.530%71%44%

Sample: 887 matches

Games handicap

Mary Stoiana −6.545%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes16%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 18.5out · 22 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Mary StoianaSayaka Ishii
1Aces1
3Double faults7
70%First serves in60%
53%First-serve points won50%
45%Second-serve points won39%
7/10Break points converted5/10
6/11Service games held4/11
51%Service points won46%
54%Return points won49%
72Total points won65

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. StoianaTourS. Ishii
Service points won57%56%53%
Return points won44%44%42%
Service games held67%63%56%
Breaks of serve36%37%31%
Aces per service game0.140.19
Double faults per game0.270.49
Sets with a tie-break14%0%
Tie-breaks won12/170/0
Wins in straight sets52%0%
Matches in the sample495

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Mary Stoiana

Sayaka Ishii

  • 17/10/26WElina Avanesyan#148WTA Osaka · Q16:3 0:0
  • 08/07/26LKayla Cross#186WTA 125 Newport · R322:6 3:6
  • 23/06/26LKaitlin Quevedo#79WTA Wimbledon · Q10:6 3:6
  • 07/06/26LVendula Valdmannova#167WTA 125 Ilkley · Q13:6 1:6
  • 30/05/26LVendula Valdmannova#167WTA 125 Birmingham · Q16:3 2:6 4:6
  • 11/07/25LTatjana Maria#69WTA 125 Newport · QF3:6 1:6
  • 09/07/25WDestanee Aiava#762WTA 125 Newport · R163:6 6:3 6:3
  • 07/07/25WHanna Chang#287WTA 125 Newport · R326:1 4:6 7:5
  • 24/06/25LKathinka Von Deichmann#334WTA Wimbledon · Q15:7 1:6
  • 09/06/25LValentina Ryser#251WTA 125 Ilkley · Q24:6 5:7

Elo over the last year

Mary StoianaSayaka Ishii

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. StoianaS. Ishii
Hard court17–1357%1–0100%
Clay4–357%0–0
Grass8–467%0–40%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Mary Stoiana

Sayaka Ishii