Tabilo vs Carreno Busta 1:2: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 60% → with the players' profiles 56%
No tie-break in recent matches: Tabilo 12 of 20, Carreno Busta 16 of 20 (tour average 61%)
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Tabilo lost the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches, Carreno Busta won the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: A. Tabilo 54% · P. Carreno Busta 46%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.1
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 73% | 27% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 65% | 35% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 59% | 41% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 51% | 49% | 45% |
| 23.5 | 44% | 56% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 41% | 59% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 38% | 62% | 34% |
Sample: 5,547 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 39%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 1:2
- Total games Over 22.5in · 33 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breaktie-break played
Match stats
| Alejandro Tabilo | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Aces | 8 |
| 2 | Double faults | 3 |
| 58% | First serves in | 67% |
| 78% | First-serve points won | 69% |
| 44% | Second-serve points won | 57% |
| 2/5 | Break points converted | 2/5 |
| 14/16 | Service games held | 14/16 |
| 64% | Service points won | 65% |
| 35% | Return points won | 36% |
| 103 | Total points won | 107 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. Tabilo | Tour | P. Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 66% | 62% | 63% |
| Return points won | 36% | 38% | 40% |
| Service games held | 83% | 76% | 77% |
| Breaks of serve | 21% | 24% | 26% |
| Aces per service game | 0.50 | 0.26 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.15 | 0.15 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 16% | 12% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 13/29 | 10/17 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 48% | 49% | |
| Matches in the sample | 70 | 56 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Alejandro Tabilo
- 03/10/26LDenis Shapovalov#42ATP Tokyo · R165:7 6:3 4:6
- 30/09/26WTommy Paul#18ATP Tokyo · R326:1 6:2
- 25/09/26LAdrian Mannarino#83ATP Chengdu · R164:6 4:6
- 06/09/26LAlexander Zverev#2ATP US Open · R322:6 6:7 2:6
- 03/09/26WAlexei Popyrin#129ATP US Open · R642:6 7:6 7:6 6:2
- 31/08/26WYannick Hanfmann#57ATP US Open · R1286:3 6:2 6:7 6:3
- 17/08/26LRafael Jodar#13ATP Cincinnati · R322:6 1:6
- 15/08/26WJan-Lennard Struff#59ATP Cincinnati · R646:3 6:4
- 05/08/26LHubert Hurkacz#34ATP Montreal · R644:6 6:7
- 02/08/26LRafael Jodar#13ATP Washington · SF7:6 4:6 4:6
Pablo Carreno Busta
- 08/10/26WMariano Navone#47ATP Shanghai · R1284:6 7:5 6:3
- 02/10/26LDaniil Medvedev#6ATP Beijing · R324:6 2:6
- 29/09/26WAdrian Mannarino#83ATP Beijing · Q26:3 6:4
- 28/09/26WYi Zhou#277ATP Beijing · Q17:5 6:3
- 30/08/26LJiří Lehečka#16ATP US Open · R1281:6 6:7 6:4 2:6
- 23/08/26LAdolfo Daniel Vallejo#52ATP Winston Salem · R644:6 0:3
- 16/08/26LAndrey Rublev#23ATP Cincinnati · R646:7 1:6
- 14/08/26WTomáš Macháč#75ATP Cincinnati · R1286:3 6:2
- 04/08/26LValentin Royer#105ATP Montreal · R1286:1 5:7 2:6
- 23/07/26LLuca Van Assche#45ATP Estoril · R163:6 6:4 2:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. Tabilo | P. Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 16–1552% | 16–1355% |
| Clay | 24–1267% | 18–772% |
| Grass | 0–30% | 1–150% |
Head to head
A. Tabilo 1–2 P. Carreno Busta
- 06/05/26Winner: Alejandro Tabilo6:2 6:1
- 17/10/25Winner: Pablo Carreno Busta3:6 6:1 6:7
- 31/12/21Winner: Pablo Carreno Busta4:6 6:7
Road through the tournament
Alejandro Tabilo
First match in this tournament.
Pablo Carreno Busta
- 08/10/26WMariano Navone#47ATP Shanghai · R1284:6 7:5 6:3