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ATP Basel500Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Tabilo vs Jodar 0:2: result and our tips

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Alejandro TabiloATP #30Elo 1954hard 1919
0:2final4:6 2:6
Rafael JodarATP #11Elo 2169hard 2113

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Alejandro Tabilo25%
Rafael Jodar75%

Elo: A. Tabilo 25% · R. Jodar 75%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Tabilo14%
2:1 A. Tabilo13%
2:1 R. Jodar22%
2:0 R. Jodar51%

First set

Alejandro Tabilo31%
Rafael Jodar70%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 48%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.570%30%68%
20.562%38%60%
21.555%45%54%
22.548%52%46%
23.541%59%39%
24.538%62%38%
25.535%65%35%

Sample: 3,922 matches

Games handicap

R. Jodar −3.554%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes43%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 22.0out · 18 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Alejandro TabiloRafael Jodar
6Aces4
1Double faults1
69%First serves in67%
67%First-serve points won80%
32%Second-serve points won50%
0/6Break points converted3/9
6/9Service games held9/9
57%Service points won70%
30%Return points won44%
53Total points won69

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. TabiloTourR. Jodar
Service points won66%62%64%
Return points won36%38%41%
Service games held83%76%81%
Breaks of serve21%24%30%
Aces per service game0.470.39
Double faults per game0.160.17
Sets with a tie-break16%12%
Tie-breaks won12/2812/25
Wins in straight sets50%61%
Matches in the sample6780

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Alejandro Tabilo

Rafael Jodar

Elo over the last year

Alejandro TabiloRafael Jodar

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. TabiloR. Jodar
Hard court14–1450%40–1474%
Clay24–1267%19–483%
Grass0–30%2–167%

Head to head

A. Tabilo 1–2 R. Jodar

  • 17/08/26Winner: R. Jodar2:6 1:6
  • 02/08/26Winner: R. Jodar7:6 4:6 4:6
  • 06/03/26Winner: A. Tabilo6:1 6:2