Tagger vs Samsonova 2:0: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Samsonova: 16 matches in a row over 18.5 games; Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Tagger 13 of 20, Samsonova 19 of 20 (tour average 64%)
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Over 24.5 games in recent matches: Tagger 7 of 20, Samsonova 15 of 20 (tour average 32%); Samsonova: 4 matches in a row over 24.5 games
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: L. Tagger 38% · L. Samsonova 62%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.6
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 69% | 31% | 64% |
| 19.5 | 61% | 39% | 56% |
| 20.5 | 55% | 45% | 49% |
| 21.5 | 49% | 51% | 44% |
| 22.5 | 43% | 57% | 38% |
| 23.5 | 39% | 61% | 34% |
| 24.5 | 37% | 64% | 32% |
Sample: 2,414 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 23%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 2:0
- Total games Under 21.5in · 18 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Lilli Tagger | Liudmila Samsonova | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Aces | 5 |
| 2 | Double faults | 2 |
| 74% | First serves in | 64% |
| 81% | First-serve points won | 52% |
| 62% | Second-serve points won | 75% |
| 3/3 | Break points converted | 0/0 |
| 9/9 | Service games held | 6/9 |
| 76% | Service points won | 60% |
| 40% | Return points won | 24% |
| 56 | Total points won | 39 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| L. Tagger | Tour | L. Samsonova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 59% | 56% | 57% |
| Return points won | 43% | 44% | 42% |
| Service games held | 71% | 63% | 68% |
| Breaks of serve | 34% | 37% | 32% |
| Aces per service game | 0.37 | 0.25 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.25 | 0.42 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 12% | 10% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 7/14 | 5/11 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 62% | |
| Matches in the sample | 50 | 45 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Lilli Tagger
- 13/10/26LNikola Bartunkova#29WTA Wuhan · R646:7 6:2 1:6
- 30/09/26LElena-Gabriela Ruse#60WTA Beijing · R1284:6 2:6
- 03/09/26LAmanda Anisimova#18WTA US Open · R643:6 6:3 1:6
- 31/08/26WTamara Korpatsch#56WTA US Open · R1286:0 7:6
- 24/08/26LYuliia Starodubtseva#50WTA Monterrey · R323:6 4:6
- 14/08/26LTalia Gibson#42WTA Cincinnati · R1286:4 1:6 5:7
- 13/08/26WRobin Montgomery#155WTA Cincinnati · Q26:3 6:1
- 11/08/26WLin Zhu#257WTA Cincinnati · Q13:6 6:1 6:1
- 26/07/26WDaria Snigur#40WTA Prague · F7:6 6:2
- 25/07/26WBarbora Krejčíková#45WTA Prague · SF6:7 6:3 7:6
Liudmila Samsonova
- 14/10/26LElina Svitolina#6WTA Wuhan · R322:6 7:5 2:6
- 13/10/26WKateřina Siniaková#86WTA Wuhan · R646:1 5:7 6:2
- 04/10/26LKarolína Muchová#7WTA Beijing · R326:4 4:6 2:6
- 02/10/26WLinda Fruhvirtova#158WTA Beijing · R646:2 3:6 6:3
- 19/09/26LPeyton Stearns#37WTA Guadalajara · SF6:7 2:6
- 17/09/26WMarta Kostyuk#10WTA Guadalajara · QF4:6 6:2 7:5
- 17/09/26WKayla Day#119WTA Guadalajara · R167:6 2:6 7:6
- 15/09/26WElsa Jacquemot#157WTA Guadalajara · R327:6 6:2
- 31/08/26LMaya Joint#90WTA US Open · R1286:3 2:6 2:6
- 16/08/26LCoco Gauff#5WTA Cincinnati · R646:2 4:6 1:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| L. Tagger | L. Samsonova | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 23–1266% | 15–1550% |
| Clay | 6–746% | 3–538% |
| Grass | 0–20% | 3–443% |
Head to head
L. Tagger 1–0 L. Samsonova
- 09/04/26Winner: Lilli Tagger6:2 7:6