Challenger LisbonChallenger 125Round of 32claybest of three sets

Trungelliti vs Pereira 2:1: result and our tips

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Marco TrungellitiATP #90Elo 1826clay 1817
2:1final7:6(5) 4:6 6:1
Tiago PereiraATP #316Elo 1572clay 1563

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Won60%

Where the number comes from: market alone 62% → with the players' profiles 60%

Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Trungelliti 17 of 20, Pereira 17 of 20 (tour average 68%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 21.5Won40%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Trungelliti 15 of 20, Pereira 15 of 20 (tour average 47%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Marco Trungelliti82%
Tiago Pereira19%

Elo: M. Trungelliti 81% · T. Pereira 19%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Trungelliti59%
2:1 M. Trungelliti22%
2:1 T. Pereira9%
2:0 T. Pereira10%

First set

Marco Trungelliti75%
Tiago Pereira26%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes31%
no69%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.0 · 54%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
16.581%19%84%
17.571%29%76%
18.561%39%68%
19.552%48%59%
20.546%54%52%
21.541%59%47%
22.535%65%40%

Sample: 2,262 matches

Games handicap

Marco Trungelliti −5.545%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 21.0out · 30 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Marco TrungellitiTiago Pereira
3Aces4
5Double faults3
63%First serves in57%
68%First-serve points won69%
54%Second-serve points won39%
5/11Break points converted3/7
11/14Service games held10/15
63%Service points won56%
44%Return points won37%
102Total points won88

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. TrungellitiTourT. Pereira
Service points won62%62%59%
Return points won39%38%37%
Service games held79%76%70%
Breaks of serve25%24%22%
Aces per service game0.360.27
Double faults per game0.310.16
Sets with a tie-break22%14%
Tie-breaks won17/386/15
Wins in straight sets51%33%
Matches in the sample6743

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Marco Trungelliti

Tiago Pereira

  • 13/10/26LLuka Mikrut#245Challenger Maia · R320:6 3:6
  • 09/10/26LElmer Moller#163Challenger Braga · QF7:5 2:6 1:6
  • 08/10/26WNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo#154Challenger Braga · R167:5 6:3
  • 07/10/26WPol Martin Tiffon#211Challenger Braga · R326:3 6:4
  • 01/10/26LHugo Grenier#387Challenger Porto 2 · R166:7 3:6
  • 29/09/26WOtto Virtanen#121Challenger Porto 2 · R326:4 2:6 6:3
  • 20/09/26LPavlos TsitsipasChallenger Plovdiv 4 · Q17:6 5:7 6:7
  • 15/09/26LFilip Pieczonka#877Challenger Szczecin · R327:5 4:6 5:7
  • 14/09/26WRudolf Molleker#522Challenger Szczecin · Q22:6 6:4 7:6
  • 13/09/26WImanol Lopez Morillo#661Challenger Szczecin · Q14:6 6:3 7:6

Elo over the last year

Marco TrungellitiTiago Pereira

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. TrungellitiT. Pereira
Hard court7–1041%5–1131%
Clay29–1763%10–1638%
Grass1–325%0–10%

Head to head

M. Trungelliti 1–1 T. Pereira

  • 08/09/26Winner: Tiago Pereira4:6 6:4 4:6
  • 30/09/25Winner: Marco Trungelliti6:1 6:1

See also