Trungelliti vs Sakamoto 0:2: result and our tips
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Our tips
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Trungelliti lost the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches, Sakamoto won the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)
Where the number comes from: market alone 40% → with the players' profiles 44%
A tie-break in recent matches: Trungelliti 10 of 20, Sakamoto 10 of 20 (tour average 38%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: M. Trungelliti 39% · R. Sakamoto 62%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.9
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 71% | 29% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 63% | 37% | 59% |
| 21.5 | 57% | 43% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 49% | 51% | 45% |
| 23.5 | 42% | 58% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 39% | 61% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 36% | 64% | 34% |
Sample: 5,099 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 38%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorehit 0:2
- Total games Under 22.5in · 21 games
- Games handicapcovered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Marco Trungelliti | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aces | 9 |
| 5 | Double faults | 2 |
| 56% | First serves in | 71% |
| 61% | First-serve points won | 75% |
| 49% | Second-serve points won | 73% |
| 1/1 | Break points converted | 4/11 |
| 7/11 | Service games held | 9/10 |
| 56% | Service points won | 75% |
| 26% | Return points won | 44% |
| 57 | Total points won | 73 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| M. Trungelliti | Tour | R. Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 62% | 62% | 66% |
| Return points won | 39% | 38% | 37% |
| Service games held | 78% | 76% | 83% |
| Breaks of serve | 25% | 24% | 21% |
| Aces per service game | 0.37 | 0.66 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.31 | 0.19 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 22% | 24% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 17/38 | 19/41 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 49% | 61% | |
| Matches in the sample | 67 | 70 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Marco Trungelliti
- 29/09/26LAlex Molcan#84ATP Beijing · Q24:6 5:7
- 28/09/26WMartin Landaluce#73ATP Beijing · Q16:1 6:7 7:6
- 19/09/26LThiago Monteiro#235Challenger Szczecin · SF4:6 6:3 3:6
- 18/09/26WMarco Cecchinato#163Challenger Szczecin · QF7:6 7:5
- 17/09/26WFilip Pieczonka#905Challenger Szczecin · R166:7 7:5 6:4
- 15/09/26WSean Cuenin#310Challenger Szczecin · R327:6 6:2
- 08/09/26LTiago Pereira#339Challenger Seville · R324:6 6:4 4:6
- 03/09/26LAlexander Blockx#28ATP US Open · R643:6 2:6 6:3 1:6
- 31/08/26WJuncheng Shang#214ATP US Open · R1280:6 7:6 1:6 6:3 6:4
- 16/08/26LDaniil Medvedev#6ATP Cincinnati · R644:6 5:7
Rei Sakamoto
- 06/10/26WKyrian Jacquet#76ATP Shanghai · Q27:6 4:6 7:6
- 05/10/26WSeongchan HongATP Shanghai · Q16:3 7:5
- 30/09/26LMatteo Arnaldi#38ATP Tokyo · R326:2 4:6 4:6
- 08/09/26LJi Sung Nam#827Challenger Shanghai · R326:7 4:6
- 02/09/26LFrances Tiafoe#10ATP US Open · R643:6 6:7 5:7
- 30/08/26WAleksandar Vukic#115ATP US Open · R1286:4 6:7 6:4 3:6 6:4
- 28/08/26WKei NishikoriATP US Open · Q36:4 7:6
- 26/08/26WAlexandre Muller#133ATP US Open · Q26:3 6:3
- 24/08/26WJay Clarke#240ATP US Open · Q14:6 6:3 6:4
- 20/08/26LLuca Van Assche#45Challenger Quebec City · R166:4 4:6 6:7
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| M. Trungelliti | R. Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 7–1041% | 32–1963% |
| Clay | 29–1763% | 9–660% |
| Grass | 1–325% | 2–250% |
Head to head
M. Trungelliti 1–0 R. Sakamoto
- 30/03/26Winner: Marco Trungelliti7:6 6:4
Road through the tournament
Marco Trungelliti
First match in this tournament.
Rei Sakamoto
- 05/10/26WSeongchan HongATP Shanghai · Q16:3 7:5
- 06/10/26WKyrian Jacquet#76ATP Shanghai · Q27:6 4:6 7:6