ATP Almaty250Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Tsitsipas vs Kovacevic 2:1: result and our tips

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Stefanos TsitsipasATP #39Elo 2047hard 2013
2:1final7:6(9) 3:6 6:3
Aleksandar KovacevicATP #82Elo 1810hard 1795

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 21.5Won58%

Where the number comes from: market alone 49% → with the players' profiles 58%

Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Tsitsipas 13 of 20, Kovacevic 13 of 20 (tour average 54%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: TsitsipasWon80%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 80%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Tsitsipas won 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 26.5Won32%

Where the number comes from: market alone 27% → with the players' profiles 32%

Over 26.5 games in recent matches: Tsitsipas 8 of 20, Kovacevic 8 of 20 (tour average 30%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Stefanos Tsitsipas80%
Aleksandar Kovacevic20%

Elo: S. Tsitsipas 78% · A. Kovacevic 22%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 S. Tsitsipas58%
2:1 S. Tsitsipas21%
2:1 A. Kovacevic10%
2:0 A. Kovacevic11%

First set

Stefanos Tsitsipas73%
Aleksandar Kovacevic27%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes31%
no69%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 51%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.575%25%67%
20.567%34%59%
21.558%42%54%
22.551%49%45%
23.544%56%39%
24.537%63%38%
25.534%66%34%

Sample: 2,961 matches

Games handicap

Stefanos Tsitsipas −4.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes50%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 31 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Stefanos TsitsipasAleksandar Kovacevic
7Aces13
2Double faults3
67%First serves in77%
83%First-serve points won72%
57%Second-serve points won54%
1/4Break points converted1/1
14/15Service games held14/15
74%Service points won68%
32%Return points won26%
97Total points won91

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

S. TsitsipasTourA. Kovacevic
Service points won68%62%66%
Return points won34%38%32%
Service games held87%76%83%
Breaks of serve18%24%13%
Aces per service game0.600.73
Double faults per game0.190.28
Sets with a tie-break24%28%
Tie-breaks won12/3222/41
Wins in straight sets60%56%
Matches in the sample5259

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Elo over the last year

Stefanos TsitsipasAleksandar Kovacevic

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

S. TsitsipasA. Kovacevic
Hard court19–1458%15–2241%
Clay10–663%7–944%
Grass1–233%1–517%

Head to head

S. Tsitsipas 1–1 A. Kovacevic

  • 26/08/26Winner: Aleksandar Kovacevic3:6 6:7
  • 23/02/24Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas7:6 6:3

See also