ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Round of 16hardbest of three sets

Medvedev vs Tsitsipas: prediction and tips

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Daniil MedvedevATP #6Elo 2133hard 2127
-:-
Stefanos TsitsipasATP #43Elo 2055hard 2021

Our tips

Tip in 7h 11m

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.

Winner

Daniil Medvedev68%
Stefanos Tsitsipas32%

Elo: D. Medvedev 65% · S. Tsitsipas 35%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 D. Medvedev44%
2:1 D. Medvedev23%
2:1 S. Tsitsipas14%
2:0 S. Tsitsipas19%

First set

Daniil Medvedev63%
Stefanos Tsitsipas37%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 53%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.575%25%68%
20.567%33%60%
21.560%40%54%
22.553%47%46%
23.545%55%39%
24.540%60%38%
25.538%62%34%

Sample: 5,062 matches

Games handicap

Daniil Medvedev −3.546%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes49%

tour average 39%

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

D. MedvedevTourS. Tsitsipas
Service points won66%62%68%
Return points won40%38%35%
Service games held84%76%87%
Breaks of serve27%24%18%
Aces per service game0.710.60
Double faults per game0.330.20
Sets with a tie-break17%25%
Tie-breaks won10/3012/32
Wins in straight sets68%60%
Matches in the sample6851

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Daniil Medvedev

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Elo over the last year

Daniil MedvedevStefanos Tsitsipas

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

D. MedvedevS. Tsitsipas
Hard court39–1178%19–1359%
Clay5–456%10–663%
Grass6–367%1–233%

Head to head

D. Medvedev 10–5 S. Tsitsipas

  • 18/02/26Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas3:6 4:6
  • 09/10/24Winner: Daniil Medvedev7:6 6:3
  • 28/10/23Winner: Daniil Medvedev6:4 7:6
  • 20/05/23Winner: Daniil Medvedev7:5 7:5
  • 16/11/22Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas3:6 7:6 6:7
  • 20/08/22Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas6:7 6:3 3:6
  • 28/01/22Winner: Daniil Medvedev7:6 4:6 6:4 6:1
  • 08/06/21Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas3:6 6:7 5:7
  • 19/02/21Winner: Daniil Medvedev6:4 6:2 7:5
  • 11/11/19Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas6:7 4:6

Road through the tournament

Daniil Medvedev

Stefanos Tsitsipas

See also