ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Medvedev vs Svrcina 2:0: result and our tips

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Daniil MedvedevATP #6Elo 2130hard 2124
2:0final6:2 6:3
Dalibor SvrcinaATP #126Elo 1849hard 1842

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 17.5Lost70%

Where the number comes from: market alone 75% → with the players' profiles 70%

Medvedev: 20 matches in a row over 17.5 games; Over 17.5 games in recent matches: Medvedev 20 of 20, Svrcina 17 of 20 (tour average 83%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 21.5Lost35%

Where the number comes from: market alone 39% → with the players' profiles 35%

Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Medvedev 14 of 20, Svrcina 13 of 20 (tour average 53%); Svrcina: 5 matches in a row over 21.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Daniil Medvedev89%
Dalibor Svrcina11%

Elo: D. Medvedev 84% · D. Svrcina 17%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 D. Medvedev70%
2:1 D. Medvedev18%
2:1 D. Svrcina6%
2:0 D. Svrcina7%

First set

Daniil Medvedev80%
Dalibor Svrcina20%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes24%
no76%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 19.5 · 50%market (no margin): 49%

The 19.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
16.579%21%91%
17.570%30%83%
18.560%41%75%
19.550%50%67%
20.543%57%58%
21.535%65%53%
22.529%71%45%

Sample: 1,657 matches

Games handicap

Daniil Medvedev −5.543%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes24%

tour average 37%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 19.5in · 17 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Daniil MedvedevDalibor Svrcina
6Aces2
5Double faults6
58%First serves in56%
81%First-serve points won63%
39%Second-serve points won33%
5/9Break points converted1/4
7/8Service games held4/9
64%Service points won50%
50%Return points won36%
66Total points won51

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

D. MedvedevTourD. Svrcina
Service points won66%62%59%
Return points won40%38%44%
Service games held84%76%68%
Breaks of serve27%24%37%
Aces per service game0.710.24
Double faults per game0.330.41
Sets with a tie-break17%15%
Tie-breaks won10/3012/22
Wins in straight sets67%67%
Matches in the sample6759

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Daniil Medvedev

Dalibor Svrcina

Elo over the last year

Daniil MedvedevDalibor Svrcina

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

D. MedvedevD. Svrcina
Hard court38–1178%18–1555%
Clay5–456%15–1060%
Grass6–367%0–10%

Head to head

D. Medvedev 2–0 D. Svrcina

  • 04/10/25Winner: Daniil Medvedev6:1 6:1
  • 29/07/25Winner: Daniil Medvedev7:6 6:4

Road through the tournament

Daniil Medvedev

Dalibor Svrcina

See also