ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Tsitsipas vs Fritz 2:1: result and our tips

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Stefanos TsitsipasATP #43Elo 2042hard 2007
2:1final3:6 7:5 6:3
Taylor FritzATP #12Elo 2136hard 2095

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: FritzWon56%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Fritz: 5 matches in a row winning the first set; Tsitsipas lost the first set in 9 of the last 20 matches, Fritz won the first set in 16 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 26.5Won40%

Where the number comes from: market alone 33% → with the players' profiles 40%

Over 26.5 games in recent matches: Tsitsipas 7 of 20, Fritz 9 of 20 (tour average 30%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Stefanos Tsitsipas40%
Taylor Fritz60%

Elo: S. Tsitsipas 38% · T. Fritz 62%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 S. Tsitsipas23%
2:1 S. Tsitsipas18%
2:1 T. Fritz21%
2:0 T. Fritz37%

First set

Stefanos Tsitsipas44%
Taylor Fritz56%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 23.5 · 53%market (no margin): 49%

The 23.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 25.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.574%26%60%
21.566%34%54%
22.560%40%46%
23.553%47%39%
24.546%54%38%
25.543%57%35%
26.540%60%30%

Sample: 5,803 matches

Games handicap

Taylor Fritz −2.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes56%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 23.5in · 30 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Stefanos TsitsipasTaylor Fritz
15Aces23
2Double faults4
61%First serves in71%
80%First-serve points won83%
47%Second-serve points won41%
2/8Break points converted1/9
14/15Service games held13/15
67%Service points won71%
29%Return points won33%
103Total points won103

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

S. TsitsipasTourT. Fritz
Service points won68%62%70%
Return points won35%38%35%
Service games held87%76%88%
Breaks of serve18%24%16%
Aces per service game0.591.01
Double faults per game0.200.15
Sets with a tie-break25%23%
Tie-breaks won12/3222/34
Wins in straight sets62%58%
Matches in the sample5054

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Taylor Fritz

Elo over the last year

Stefanos TsitsipasTaylor Fritz

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

S. TsitsipasT. Fritz
Hard court18–1358%25–1366%
Clay10–663%0–20%
Grass1–233%11–379%

Head to head

S. Tsitsipas 2–2 T. Fritz

  • 21/01/24Winner: Taylor Fritz6:7 7:5 3:6 3:6
  • 14/04/23Winner: Taylor Fritz2:6 4:6
  • 24/01/22Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas4:6 6:4 4:6 6:3 6:4
  • 30/10/19Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas7:6 6:3

Road through the tournament

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Taylor Fritz

See also